Spring Creek, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS64 KMEG 061700
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- A pleasant and unseasonably cool weekend is expected, with
  highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.
- Hot and dry conditions will return next week, with temperatures
  climbing back into the 90s, likely worsening ongoing drought
  conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
12Z upper-air analysis depicts an upper-level trough encompassing
the eastern half of the United States. Late morning surface
analysis places a cold front from eastern Tennessee back through
northern Alabama and central Mississippi. Regional WSR-88D radar
trends show some residual rain showers generally along a line from
Jonesboro, AR to Huntingdon, TN. Temperatures behind the front
are much cooler than 24 hours ago with lower 60s prevalent as of
10 AM CDT.
Rain will gradually taper off into this afternoon as a 1022 mb
surface high builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
bring a period of pleasant cool and dry weather to the Mid-South
through Monday. Highs will be mainly in the lower 80s with lows
mostly in the 50s. Sunday night will be the coolest night with
temperatures falling back into the upper 40s in some locations
north of I-40. There is a low probability for the development of
shallow patchy fog east of the Mississippi River tonight as
elevated winds may mitigate any concerns.
Long-term deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate upper-
level ridging will build across the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys next week, bringing a continuation of rain free weather
along with a return of above normal temperatures in the 90s by
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Light showers will persist at TUP over the next few hours or so
before tapering off for the rest of the TAF period. MVFR
conditions have spread over MEM/MKL/TUP, but should lift to VFR
over the next few hours as ridging begins to build in. Patchy fog
is expected to form at MKL along already saturated soils, calm
winds, and a weak low- level inversion. Fog should lift by
sunrise. North/northeast winds will remain sub 10 kts over the
next 30 hours or so.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop to around
25 percent by Monday. A lack of appreciable rainfall in some
locations and ongoing drought conditions will lead to drier fuels.
However, light winds will mitigate any significant fire danger in
the short term. Rain-free conditions will persist into next week
with temperatures gradually rising above normal into the 90s.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion