Spring Grove, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

251
FXUS61 KAKQ 170146
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
946 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure stalls over the region tonight into
Wednesday, bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
A brief warmup is expected by late week before a return to
slightly below normal temperatures this weekend into early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Coastal low pressure lingers over the area tonight bringing
  continued chances for rain and gusty winds.
This evening, the coastal low now has a pressure of ~1010 mb
and is centered just to the east of the mouth of the Chesapeake
Bay. The low will continue to slowly drift westward while also
weakening tonight into early Wednesday morning. We have seen
some pretty impressive rainfall totals today, especially across
eastern portions of Virginia Beach where in excess of 7" of rain
has fallen. While the heaviest rain is likely over, CAMs still
suggest that inland areas may pick up 1"+ overnight as the low
slows down/stalls over the area. In addition we are seeing a few
thunderstorms just off the MD coast as a warm front moves north
over the offshore waters. The majority of this activity should
stay offshore, but there is just enough elevated instability to
support a slight thunderstorm chance over NE portions of the
area. Trimmed the Flood Watch to take out much of Southside
Hampton Roads. While the remainder of the watch remains in
effect until 2 AM, the overall flooding threat is fairly
limited. Breezy to windy conditions continue this evening,
especially near the coast. Winds will continue to decrease from
S to N tonight as the low moves inland/weakens. Lows tonight
range from the upper 50s to low/mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Showers linger Wednesday as surface low pressure weakens and
  begins to move offshore.
- Low pressure moves away from the area Thursday with improving
  conditions.
The coastal low weakens on Wednesday with additional rainfall totals
of 0.5-1.5" possible, mainly north of I-64 and east of I-95 where
onshore flow will continue north of the low center. Temps will
remain cool with highs struggling to get out of the 60s inland and
low-mid 70s near the coast. Low pressure slowly fills in with winds
decreasing across the region. Showers taper off Wednesday night with
low temps again in the upper 50s to low 60s. Improving conditions
expected on Thursday with clearing skies from west to east during
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region
as the upper and surface lows weaken and exit the area. Mostly clear
and dry Thursday night with lows near 60 degrees. High pressure
moves into the region Friday with temps warming in the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A front drops southward across the region this weekend, bringing
  comfortable temperatures and dry conditions.
High pressure builds to the north early Saturday, sending a back
door front through the region. Not expecting more than a few extra
clouds with the front. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 70s to
low 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Slight chance of showers
creep back into the forecast early next week as high pressure ridges
against the higher Appalachians terrain and moisture increases from
the S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Tuesday...
Conditions across all terminals remain degraded this evening as a
coastal low sits almost over the Chesapeake Bay. This is due to a
combination of low CIGS and VIS within showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Shower activity will continue through at least the
first part of tonight, so have gone with prevailing MVFR VIS at all
terminals aside from ECG who may be out of the rain for good. As the
low gradually lifts to the NW, shower activity on the southern side
should taper off, allowing heavier showers to subside at PHF and
ORF. There is some uncertainty in the timing of the end of the
shower activity, so have maintained VCSH after dropping mention of
RA between 06-08z. CIGS overnight and into tomorrow morning will
drop to IFR at all sites, potentially coming back to low-end MVFR by
tomorrow afternoon. Surface winds remain elevated this afternoon,
with gusts of 25-30 kts at most terminals. Winds should start to
come down some overnight, but will stay elevated with gusts of 15-20
kts expected through the TAF period after midnight tonight. Gusts at
ORF will likely remain higher (between 20-25 kt) as they are much
more exposed to the northerly flow.
Outlook: The coastal low will linger near the area into midweek with
degraded conditions expected through Wednesday. Conditions should
gradually improve Thursday with dry and VFR conditions returning by
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 935 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds gradually decrease overnight and especially Wednesday.
  However, elevated seas continue through through most of
  Wednesday.
- Quieter marine conditions return by Thursday and Friday.
~1012 mb low pressure is near Cape Charles as of this writing.
Winds continue to slowly diminish as the low weakens and lifts
slowly north. Winds to Gale Force and even quite a few gusts to
Storm Force in the lower Ches Bay, Offshore of Cape Charles, and
in the lower James River have since diminished back below Gale
thresholds. As of this writing, the plan is for Gale Warnings
to go over to Small Craft Advisories with the evening update at
02z for all but the northern waters north of Wachapreague and
the Ches Bay north of Windmill Pt.
Winds tonight continue to gradually subside as the weakening
low meanders wobbles across the Chesapeake Bay and meanders into
eastern VA as it weakens. CAMs maintain winds of 15-20 kt
into the overnight hours, before weakening into midday
Wednesday.The wind direction will also begin to gain a westerly
component as the the low moves to our north. East wind wave will
maintain elevated seas through Wednesday, but the magnitude
will quickly drop off as the low continues to fill and winds
decrease.
A W-NW wind direction persists Thursday through early Friday,
before a light/variable wind pattern takes over Friday. Another
period of elevated NE winds are possible behind a backdoor cold
front this weekend and additional Small Craft Advisories may be
needed for winds and seas.
Rip Currents: A High risk of rip currents is expected through
Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday...
~1012mb sfc low pressure has lifted to near the Cape Charles as
of this writing. Winds have turned to the NNW over the Bay and
tidal rivers, but remain onshore along the Eastern Shore.
Earlier this evening wind gusts to 50-60 kt allowed for tidal
levels to be highest along the shores of the southern Ches Bay
and the lower James, with Lynnhaven, CBBT (and neighboring
Little Creek) reaching Major flood thresholds. Otherwise, high-
end minor to moderate flooding. Farther up the bay (and along
the tidal Rappahannock and Potomac), minor to low- end moderate
flooding also remains in the forecast for the ongoing tide cycle
this evening. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for the
tidal James, York, and Rappahannock Rivers into the overnight,
with headlines dropping off along the lower Ches Bay and on the
Eastern Shore.
Expect water levels to drop off significantly after this
evening`s high tide cycle due to the considerable decrease in
winds/seas with no worse than nuisance to low-end minor flooding
expected from Wednesday morning onward.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-
     083>086-089-090-093-096-518-520>525.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ077-078-084>086-
     089-090-099-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-
     097-098-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-650-652.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ631-632-
     634>638-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ631-632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...MAM/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion