Spring Lake Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

474
FXUS64 KLUB 141732
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Drier and cooler tonight with some low clouds by Wednesday
   morning over the far southwest South Plains.
- Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday near the
   NM/TX border.
- Breezy and warm weather is forecast for the rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The final round of showers and storms was gradually exiting our
northwestern most counties early this afternoon ahead of an
expansive area of subsidence and drying aloft. This drying is
courtesy of a broad mid and upper high drifting north over eastern
TX which is spreading height and thickness gains our way. This
process will serve to shove a narrow plume of monsoonal moisture
and precip from Carlsbad-Clovis-Stratford farther WNW tonight and
away from our forecast area. Lows tonight will be on the cooler
side for a change under clear skies, light winds and lower
dewpoints than recent nights; however, there is a window for low
stratus development toward daybreak across the far southwest South
Plains on the edge of a moist tongue forecast to extend from the
Permian Basin to northern Lea County. Since this feature is
already host to a layer of low clouds at noon over the eastern
Permian Basin, feel the HREF and CONSSHORT look more believable
than the NBM with low clouds sneaking into our far SW zones
Wednesday morning before mixing out by midday. Another round of
very mild highs in the 80s awaits on Wednesday as we remain on the
western periphery of upper ridging. NBM`s highs may need to be
bumped up a touch in later forecasts as dewpoints will mix out
lower than today allowing for deeper mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Precipitation chances Thursday remain on track for the long term
package. An upper level Omega blocking pattern will begin to break
down Thursday. An upper low just off the coast of New England will
track off into the Atlantic as a secondary low over the
Intermountain West translates northward toward Saskatchewan Canada.
On the surface, a lee side low will develop over southeastern
Colorado. Southerly surface winds will increase during the afternoon
in response to a tightening pressure gradient with wind speeds up to
15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. The same lee side low
will swing a Pacific cold front toward the region Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.
Slight chance PoPs are forecasted for portions of the far southern
Texas Panhandle and South Plains Thursday afternoon and evening with
models indicating storms developing over eastern New Mexico and
track east into our region. Severe weather threat will be low with
any thunderstorms that develop.
The Pacific front will gradually continue to trek through the region
Friday. Over the weekend, models are in disagreement on the upper
level pattern. Both ECMWF and GFS indicate a positively tilted
trough filling in over western CONUS following the exit of the upper
low. However, GFS indicates a shortwave trough will develop on the
base of the aforementioned trough and translate over the region. The
combination of the shortwave and the Pacific cold front could bring
precipitation chances late Friday into Saturday across the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. Previous
forecasts included PoPs, however models now indicate most
precipitation will be to the southeast of our region as
southwesterly surface winds will keep the low levels dry. Therefore,
NBM PoPs have been left as is, although could expect that to change
for future forecast packages. Good news is with either upper level
pattern, we will see a slight decrease in temperatures over the
weekend with some areas on the Caprock seeing highs in the upper
70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Continued VFR with steady SSE winds of 10-15 knots.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion