Springdale, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS61 KOKX 011132
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure builds in from the north into
Thursday and then remains over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
through the weekend. The high then moves slowly offshore the
beginning of next week with a cold front approaching the area
late Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A large dome of high pressure will build southward out of eastern
and into the Northeast through tonight. This will result in a more
Autumn-like airmass across the region with highs today struggling
to get to 70. In addition, with multiple tropical systems over
the western Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient will result in a
gusty NE winds, especially during the morning into early afternoon
hours. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph, highest across eastern LI
and SE CT.
NE winds tonight will stay up enough to limit radiational cooling.
Lows will range from the lower 40s inland to the lower 50s across
the NYC metro. This is about 3 to 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Northeast on Thursday will continue to
settle south and east. Thursday and Thursday night will be the
coolest days of the week with highs in the 60s and lows mainly
in the 40s, except the lower 50s across the NYC metro. A few
locations north and west as well as the Pine Barrens region of
LI may even get into the 30s. Used a blend of the NBM deterministic
and the NBM 50th percentile for the lows. The deterministic is
at or above the 75th percentile, which for strong radiational
cooling nights can be too warm outside of the metro.
The upper ridge axis slides east on Friday with surface high
pressure just off the New England coast down into the Mid
Atlantic states. This will mark the beginnings of warmup heading
into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* High pressure remains in place this weekend and early next
  week with dry conditions.
* The high slides east Monday night as a cold front approaches late
  Tuesday. Expect a chance of showers late Tuesday into Tuesday
  night.
* Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will be in the middle and
  upper 70s to lower 80s, with highs on Wednesday slightly cooler,
  with highs only in the 70s. This will be 5-10 degrees above
  normal. At this time no record highs are expected to be set.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north during the TAF period.
VFR Conditions through the period.
N/NE flow gradually increase this morning with speeds around
10-14kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Can not rule out a few occasional
gusts higher than 25kt. NE gusts continue for much of the day
before beginning to lighten into the late afternoon and evening.
Direction remains primarily N/NE through the period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible this morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SE-S swell from the tropical systems out in the western
Atlantic and an easterly wind wave will produce 7 to 11 ft
seas on the ocean waters today. In addition, NE winds between
building high pressure to the north and low pressure out in the
western Atlantic will produce NE gusts of 25 to 30 kt, highest
on the ocean waters. Winds and seas will then begin to gradually
subside this afternoon into Friday as high pressure settles
across the waters. SCA for the ocean waters remains up through
Thursday, and will probably need to eventually be extended into
Thursday night for lingering seas around 5 ft. SCA is also up
for most of the non ocean waters through this afternoon. For
eastern LI Sound east of the mouth of the CT River, SCA will
continue into tonight due to shoaling of the swells between
Montauk Point and Block Island which will produce seas of 3 to 6
ft.
Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels Friday through
Monday night as high pressure remains over the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement remains up for high surf impacting
the oceanfront.
A southerly swell due to multiple tropical cyclones well off
the eastern seaboard will produce large breaking waves along the
oceanfront today. Expect surf of 6 to 10 ft due to an incoming
S swell of 6 ft 15s. Fortunately, water levels are not expected
to get too high as we are about a week out from a full moon.
However, expect some beach flooding and minor damage to dune
structures. Coastal flooding beyond the beachfront is unlikely.
The swell period and height are expected to diminish tonight
into Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion