Springridge, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS64 KSHV 011855
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
155 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Above normal temperatures will continue areawide through the
   entire forecast period.
- Aside from isolated thunderstorms possible over portions of
   Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana Thursday afternoon, dry
   conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend before
   isolated storms return to the southeast half of the area early
   next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A healthy cu field has developed early this afternoon across the
region, as strong heating has tapped the shallow moisture lyr in
place. The early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a weak
upper low along troughing extending near and just N of the Gulf
Coast into Srn GA, with this weakness tailing NW into the Lower MS
Valley. In fact, a deeper cu field exists over Wrn and SRN MS
within a higher theta-e air mass, with even a few isolated -SHRA
having recently developed over this area. While any isolated
convection should remain just SE of the region this afternoon/early
evening, the higher theta-e air mass should maintain some cu as it
advects W into portions of Srn AR/ECntrl LA tonight. This should
also result in milder temps at most locales than what was
observed this morning across this area, with the higher humidity
air coupled with strong insolation resulting in another day of
widespread 90+ degree temps across the region. In fact, flat upper
ridging over Nrn Old MX this afternoon will begin to amplify N
into the Srn Rockies tonight and across the Srn/Cntrl Plains
Thursday, before expanding farther E into the OH valley Friday
into the upcoming weekend. Thus, the trend for above normal temps
will continue areawide (and over a large part of the country E of
the Rockies) through the weekend.
However, the increasing low level moisture advecting E in the Erly
flow in VC of the Gulf coast weakness aloft should yield the
potential for isolated afternoon convection Thursday over portions
of SW AR/N LA, some of which may spill into extreme Ern TX late in
the day. Unfortunately, little in the way of wetting rains are
expected, but really the best shot at rainfall in the last week
(and for the foreseeable future) before drier air begins to advect
back W into the Delta region Thursday afternoon, into Srn AR/N LA
Thursday night, and much of the rest of the area Friday. The drier
air may also help to knock temps down a tad as well for late
week into the weekend, although readings will still remain above
average for this time of year.
While the upper ridge center will shift farther E to the Ern
Seaboard for the latter half of the weekend into the start of the
new work week in response to longwave troughing sliding through
the Nrn Plains and the Intermountain West, above normal temps and
mostly dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the
extended as flat ridging redevelops over TX. The remnants of the
weakness aloft over the Nrn Gulf may drift back S into portions of
SE LA Sunday afternoon into early next week, which may yield an
increase in isolated convection over Deep E TX into NCntrl LA.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, FEW/SCT CU 5-8kft this afternoon with
some BKN mid/high convective debris E of I-49 late. An Easterly
wave/weak upper low running along the N Gulf is approaching and will
bring some convection into our air space mid/late Thursday. VFR will
persist for much of this cycle, but brief daybreak BR may occur at a
site or two as our winds prevail E/SE around 5KT to end this cycle
as strong SFC high pressure builds over the mid-Atlantic states with
the tropical cyclones departing for wide open waters. /24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  92  68  90 /   0  20  10   0
MLU  68  91  64  87 /   0  20   0   0
DEQ  62  89  63  87 /   0  10  10   0
TXK  67  92  64  89 /   0  20  10   0
ELD  64  90  62  87 /   0  20  10   0
TYR  65  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  90  65  89 /   0  10  10   0
LFK  65  92  66  90 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion