Stacy Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS61 KRLX 080728
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and drizzle linger as a cold front crosses early this
morning. Much cooler and drier high pressure builds in for
today and Thursday, with mountain valley frost north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...
The southern stream system that brought the soaking rain to the
area Tuesday into Tuesday night was more pronounced than
forecast by most models, including a stronger surface
reflection, and the cold front almost never interacted. Rather,
the rain showers associated with the system were exiting, and
there were just a few light rain showers associated with the
cold front south of the Mason- Dixon parallel.
Interaction of the cold front with the mountains and upslope in
the wake of the front will keep showers going there through
about daybreak this morning.
Much cooler and drier air will advect into the area from
northwest to southeast on gusty northwest winds today,
beginning early this morning. Low clouds, spotty light rain
showers and drizzle, and areas of fog early this morning, will
give way to sunshine from northwest to southeast across the
lowlands after daybreak this morning, and in the mountains early
this afternoon.
Today will be cooler than Tuesday in most locations, and much
cooler than recent days prior to Tuesday throughout the area.
Highs will be near normal, in contrast to the much warmer than
normal weather of late, in the mid 60s to around 70 across the
lowlands, and mid 50s and 60s in the mountains.
Northwest winds will gust to 15 to 20 mph at times today, as a
large high pressure system over the upper midwest this morning
drifts east across the Great Lakes.
The high will build to the north of the area tonight,
slackening but not quite eradicating the pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, the deeper mountain valleys will decouple, and
given very dry air and clear sky, temperatures there will drop
into the lower to mid 30s. A frost advisory has been issued for
tonight into Thursday morning for the northern and central
mountains, in concert with neighboring offices. Temperatures
elsewhere bottom out from the upper 30s in northern lowland
valleys to the mid 40s on southern lowland hill tops.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...
Clearing skies and diminishing winds Wednesday night will allow for
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows are expected to drop into
the low to mid 40s for most low-lying areas, and into the 30s in the
mountains. This may result in patchy frost or even some isolated
spots that freeze, especially for areas subject to cold air drainage
in the mountain counties.
High pressure will be centered over upstate New York on Thursday,
providing abundant sunshine. Despite the sun, high temperatures will
struggle to climb out of the mid 60s for most, with 50s in the
highest elevations. The combination of clear skies, calm winds, and
a dry airmass will set the stage for another cold night Thursday
night. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
across the lower elevations, with another, more widespread potential
for frost and/or freeze across the mountains and even into some of
the northern lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...
The long term period will be dominated by surface high pressure,
leading to an extended stretch of dry and tranquil weather. A
warming trend will commence on Friday as the high shifts east,
allowing for a southerly return flow to develop. High temperatures
will return to the upper 60s and low 70s on Friday under sunny skies.
The spectacular fall weather continues through the weekend. Abundant
sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday, with high
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will
also moderate, ending the frost threat for most locations after
Friday morning. The pattern remains dry into the start of next week,
with the next chance for precipitation holding off until at least
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...
Widespread IFR conditions, mainly on ceilings, were associated
with a cold front crossing the area early this Wednesday
morning, with occasional visibility drops to IFR in drizzle and
fog.
The cold front will cross the Ohio River around 08Z and the
mountains by 12Z. IFR stratus will persist behind the front
through about daybreak Wednesday along the Ohio River, through
much of the morning Wednesday at CKB and CRW, and into Wednesday
afternoon in the mountains. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR
and then break up across the lowlands during the daylight
morning hours and in the mountains early to mid afternoon in the
mountains.
Visibility will improve to VFR where not already before
daybreak along the Ohio River, and around daybreak Wednesday
farther east. High pressure building to the north will bring a
VFR finish to the day Wednesday, and a VFR to the night
Wednesday night.
Light southwest surface flow will become light northwest behind
the cold front, and then strengthen and become a bit gusty
before daybreak along the Ohio River and around daybreak
farther east. These gusty northwest winds will then diminish
and become light north Wednesday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More prolonged or widespread IFR
conditions are possible as the cold front rolls through the area
early this Wednesday morning. Improvement later this Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              WED 10/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
At least patchy IFR morning valley fog is possible each morning
beginning Thursday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ039-040-
     518>526.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ523>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion