Stafford Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS61 KLWX 131917
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
317 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low moves east offshore through midweek as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The cold front pushes through the
forecast area on Wednesday with high pressure building in behind it.
High pressure persist through Saturday, ahead of another cold front
bringing renewed precipitation chances later this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A coastal low will continue to slowly meander off the Delmarva
Peninsula this afternoon before slowly tracking east out to sea
overnight. Light rain/drizzle is expected to continue across
the forecast area this afternoon and into the overnight as the
low remains nearby. Visible satellite as of 3PM shows cloudy
skies across much of the forecast area. The exception is the
southern portions of the area where dry air is yielding partly
sunny skies. A few breaks in the clouds is possible this
afternoon and into the evening, although overcast skies are
expected to persist through the overnight. Gusty north winds
continue overnight with winds gusting 15 to 20 knots.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s for most with
those along the Alleghenies and higher elevations dipping into
the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A dry cold front approaches the forecast area Tuesday from the
northwest before pushing through the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Dry
conditions are expected both days due to lack of moisture aloft as a
coastal low departs offshore. A pressure gradient between high
pressure to the northwest and low pressure offshore will result
in breezy conditions each afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots
expected.
High temperatures each day will be in the 60s to mid 70s across the
forecast area with higher elevations in the Alleghenies staying in
the 50s. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
40s for those west of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those east and
along the metros. In the wake of a cold front, overnight low
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong upper trough remain over the northeast CONUS through
the end of the week. In the wake of a potent dry cold front the
previous night, Thursday will see a substantial cooldown into the
60s for most areas. Thursday night may pose the threat for a
widespread frost event, as lows dip into the 30s west of the I-
95 corridor. This cooldown continues into Friday as well, with
similar conditions expected across the region. Though Friday night
is expected to be warmer as winds shift and an upper-level ridge
begins to build eastward.
Dry conditions continue through at least Saturday as high pressure
remains in control of the weather pattern. As the aforementioned
trough finally starts to shift towards the east, mid-level height
rises will allow for slightly warmer temperatures Saturday and
Sunday. Both days will see temperatures back into the 70s for most.
A chance for some showers returns later in the day Sunday into
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A coastal low will continue moving east offshore, with lingering
precipitation, increased cloud cover, and gusty winds expected in
its wake. MVFR conditions are expected across all airports through
tonight as north winds gust 20 to 25 knots. VFR conditions return
Tuesday morning for CHO and MRB as dry air moves in behind the
coastal low. The remaining terminals will improve to VFR conditions
later in the afternoon. VFR conditions and gusty north winds persist
through Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the
forecast area on Wednesday, with no precipitation expected.
VFR conditions will continue through the end of the week as high
pressure remains overhead. Winds on Thursday will continue to gust
around 15 to 20 knots, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Winds will
taper off on Friday, but remain out of the NNW through the evening,
before turning light and southerly overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
North winds gust around 30 knots this evening with occasional
gusts to gale force possible. Duration and frequency of gale
force gusts is expected to be sporadic in nature. High end Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect across all waters
through Tuesday night. Winds diminish over the upper portions of
the Tidal Potomac with Small Craft Advisories persisting over
the lower Potomac and the Chesapeake Bay. Advisories will likely
be extended through Wednesday.
Outside of gusty winds, conditions dry out overnight with no
precipitation expected over the waters Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect some residual wind gusts around SCA criteria through Thursday
as the expansive wind field of the offshore coastal system continues
to impact the region. SCAs are likely to continue through Thursday
into Thursday night. Winds will begin to taper off overnight and
should be below SCA criteria on Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are continuing to fall as gusty north winds
continue. No minor flooding is expected, although a few
sensitive locations are forecast to rise into Action stage
during high tide. Dahlgren, Annapolis, Solomons Island, Straits
Point, and DC are all forecast to near or reach Action Stage
over the next few days.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...AVS/CJL
MARINE...AVS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion