Starr Cemetery Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS64 KTSA 151741
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances return Friday night and continue through
   Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Saturday
   night. Severe weather potential exists.
- After a warmup staring on Monday, cooler weather is forecast by
   Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Temperatures late tonight should be about as temperatues last night.
Fair skies and light southeast wind should allow the typically cooler
locations drop a few degrees below the rest of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Ensemble model data suggests a slower and stronger solution for the
approaching system, with the potential for a negatively tilted impulse
to eject northeast across the area Saturday afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms chances start to increase late Friday night and
continue into Saturday. Overall dynamics should be favorable for severe weather,
but details on the evolution of the Friday night and Saturday morning storms
complicate the instability forecast. Even given that, the zone of higher-end
severe storm potential is possible Saturday afternoon and early evening...
particularly from western Arkansas and on east and northeast.
Return southerly flow will develop ahead of the next system early next week,
followed by another cold front around Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for
all sites. Predominantly clear skies continue areawide with light
winds out of the east-southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  84  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  83  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   55  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...43

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion