Starr Cemetery South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

492
FXUS62 KCAE 140244
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and mainly clear night is expected as high pressure
builds into the region. The anticyclone will remain in place
through Wednesday before a reinforcing dry cold front moves
through Wednesday night, with temperatures several degrees
cooler behind the boundary. Another front may approach late in
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- A cool and mainly clear night ahead.
Skies are clear to mostly clear across the FA this evening as a
few clouds drift in from northwest. Moisture should continue to
decrease as the coastal storm pulls away from the United
States. Guidance shows the potential for radiation fog tonight
but this should be restricted to near bodies of water, if it
develops at all. The clear skies and lighter winds should allow
temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Temperatures return to near normal with dry conditions each
  day.
- Dry cold front passes Wednesday night.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes, ridging down into
the Southeast region is expected to bring dry conditions both
Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper ridge over the central CONUS
will also bring some slight height rises, aiding in bringing
afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s to near 80 each day.
Wednesday night, a diffuse front should pass from the north,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air where overnight
lows should fall into the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Slightly cooler to end the week.
- Cold front approaches to end weekend.
The cooler airmass behind the front should yield afternoon
temperatures that are a tad below normal (around 5 degrees
lower) Thursday, and possibly again Friday, but dry weather
should continue. Strong radiational cooling conditions Thursday
and Friday night could lead to the chilliest nights we have seen
this fall with lows in the mid to upper 40s, though spots
toward the lower 40s seem possible, especially Thursday night.
After this, global deterministic models and ensemble guidance
continue to show a deep trough digging into the Plains toward
Saturday, forcing the upper ridge overhead, turning flow more
out the south to southwest, and bringing temperatures back near
normal. Dry weather is expected to prevail Saturday but then
guidance becomes a bit more split toward Sunday in terms of the
timing of a potential front and associated rain chances. Right
now slight chance PoP`s seem reasonable considering the
uncertainty Sunday. Model agreement is relatively high that
this front will clear by Sunday night with high pressure
building in Monday, bringing back dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A 20 kt LLJ tonight and a dry air mass is unlikely to yield
widespread fog tonight. However, decent rain yesterday across
the eastern FA has lead to higher soil moisture/crossover temps
at OGB which could lead to brief vis restrictions. Given the
fog prone nature of AGS, it could also experience shallow fog
early this morning with a crossover temp of only 60 degrees.
Expect light winds generally out of the NW, but variable or calm
at times. VFR conditions continue tomorrow under clear or
mostly clear skies. N winds pick up around 15Z with speeds
ranging from 5 to 10 kts.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions continue through
Friday. A dry front will work into the forecast area late
Wednesday or early Thursday shifting winds from N/NW to NE.
Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping up chances for
restrictions and convection ahead of another front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion