Stella Niagara Seminary, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

659
FXUS61 KBUF 062108
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
508 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather with periodic lake effect rain showers will persist
tonight through Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Drier weather
arrives Monday as high pressure builds over the region, with a
warming trend then emerging through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Water vapor imagery shows a large long wave trough centered over the
Great Lakes southward into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley with
multiple shortwave troughs cycling through the region. Cold front
has now exited to our east which has allowed the last of the
steadier rain showers to end across our eastern zones, although
under the cold cyclonic flow regime, can`t rule out a few widely
scattered showers across the region into early evening.
The core of the 500mb cold pool will move by to our northwest
tonight through Sunday. Temperatures at 850mb will continue to fall
into the +3C to +5C range across the forecast area and provide
support for lake effect showers. After a brief period of mostly dry
weather this evening, moisture will increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough, which is evident as scattered afternoon convection
can be seen to our west and northwest associated with this feature.
A southwest flow will become well aligned in the boundary layer and
showers will develop east-northeast of the Lakes overnight. Rainfall
amounts will be localized with most areas seeing little to nothing
and lakeshore locations seeing up to 0.25". Flow will then veer
directing lake showers more east to east-southeast of the Lakes
Sunday, mainly through midday/early afternoon. Rainfall amounts will
be localized east of Lake Ontario with locations on the northern Tug
Hill seeing around 0.25". A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled
out close to the lakeshores Sunday morning. Deeper moisture gets
stripped away Sunday afternoon with lake effect activity becoming
more sparse. Most of the shower activity will be confined to lake
effect areas with little to nothing elsewhere. Prepare for another
autumn-like day Sunday, with highs in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep longwave troughing draped from eastern Canada to the Great
Lakes and Northeast will gradually flatten and recede back north of
the Canadian border in the Sunday night-Monday night time frame...
while sprawling surface-based ridging builds from the Midwest to New
England. Lingering cyclonic flow and moisture will help keep the
chance of some lake effect rain showers east-southeast of Lake
Ontario Sunday night...with increasing drying/subsidence attendant
to the surface ridge then bringing an end to these Monday morning.
Outside of the above...our region can expect dry weather and mainly
clear skies to predominate through Monday night...along with
generally light winds. This will result in prime conditions for
radiational cooling both Sunday and Monday nights...with this
potentially enough to result in the development of some patchy frost
across far interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country
on both occasions. With this in mind...have undercut blended
guidance somewhat to better account for this possibility. In
between...highs will remain confined to the mid-upper 60s (with
lower 60s across the higher terrain) on Monday.
Tuesday through Wednesday the core of the surface ridge will slide
across the Canadian Maritimes and out to sea...with lingering weaker
ridging extending back southwestward to the New England and mid-
Atlantic States. This will result in a continuation of fair dry
weather... with the combination of ongoing airmass modification and
modest warm air advection helping temperatures to rebound back to
near normal levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The beginning of this period will feature the passage of a cold
front sometime between later Wednesday night and Thursday...as the
large-scale trough over eastern Canada briefly reamplifies. This
being said...this next front looks to only be accompanied by very
limited moisture...which should result in it passing through our
region with little fanfare. Following its passage...Canadian high
pressure will settle back across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the rest of the period. This will result in more fair dry
weather...with somewhat cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday
perhaps starting to give way to some limited warming on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue across the forecast area through this
evening. Cold air aloft and increasing moisture will support
developing lake effect showers east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
later tonight through early to middle part of Sunday afternoon. MVFR
conditions are possible within the lake effect activity, mainly
across KART later tonight and KJHW late tonight through Sunday
morning. Instability will increase Sunday and additional cumulus
clouds will form across the region. There could be an isolated
thunderstorm, mainly close to the Lakes Sunday morning.
Outlook...
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will ramp up on Lake Erie late this afternoon and evening with
a brief window of marginal SCA conditions.
After winds on Lake Erie relax late this evening, winds on both
Lakes will strengthen again early Sunday with another round of Small
Craft conditions likely into Sunday night, especially on Lake
Ontario. With the cool airmass overhead, lake effect rain showers,
thunderstorms, and waterspouts will also be possible at times. The
primary timeframe of concern for these will be tonight through
Sunday morning.
High pressure building over the Lakes will cause winds to subside
Sunday night into Monday, becoming light by Monday evening.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSK/PP
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM/PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion