Stella, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS63 KSGF 280724
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
224 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather for the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Existing upper-level ridging in the central CONUS will continue
to progressively strengthen and expand today, with a tad bit of
low-level warm air advection increasing temperatures by a couple
of degrees compared to Saturday. A cold front currently extends
from a low pressure center in the Hudson Bay through the Great
Lakes into the lower Missouri Valley, which is evident on water
vapor satellite imagery.
The cold front will stop progressing southward and stall prior
to arriving in our area due to resistance from the building
ridge aloft. We have quite a dry profile in our 00Z sounding,
with a PW of 0.65", which is just below the 25th percentile in
the sounding climatology. The stalling of the front will prevent
even drier air behind it from reaching the area, allowing
us to retain the bit of moisture we do have in the 850-800mb
layer (only a 7C dew point depression, compared to a Tdd of 13C
at 925mb, 34C at 700mb, and a whopping 38C at 500mb). Because of
the dry air, skies will remain mostly clear, save for perhaps a
couple cumulus clouds in that 850-800mb layer this afternoon.
Clear skies overnight will allow strong radiational cooling to
bring patches of shallow ground fog to low-lying areas and
river valleys during the early morning hours. Crossover
temperatures around 57 degrees will make fog more likely in the
eastern Ozarks (morning minimum temps between 50-55F), but some
patches in locally cooler areas will be possible across the
entire area. Fog will not be dense, and should dissipate by
13Z/8 AM local time.
The clear skies will also allow for maximum efficiency of
daytime heating, bringing temperatures this afternoon into the
mid to upper 80s. Tonight, temps fall back into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper ridge will continue to build into midweek,
persisting and maintaining control of the sensible weather
pattern through at least Friday, possibly longer. Our position
near/collocated with the center of the surface high will keep
temperatures and overall weather conditions pretty consistent
through the work week, with temperatures starting ~83-87F on
Monday and generally only fluctuating +/- 2 degrees at a given
location each subsequent day. Overnight lows expected to follow
similar trends within the ~55-61F range. PoPs stay 

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion