Stevens Creek Park California Weather Forecast Discussion

684
FXUS66 KMTR 112046
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
146 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Cool and breezy this weekend
- Widespread rainfall and isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
   with drier conditions returning by Wednesday afternoon
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
(This evening through Sunday)
Mid/upper level troughing persist over the West Coast this afternoon
resulting in temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
averages. That said, seeing scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain with afternoon heating. Tonight will be cool with lows
dropping into the mid/upper 40s in the North Bay Valleys and
interior portions of the Central Coast. Elsewhere, upper 40s to mid
50s are expected into early Sunday morning.
There is about a 20%-30% chance of seeing fog in the North Bay
Valleys early Sunday morning before clearing skies return. Sunday
afternoon will feature mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the
60s near the coast to mid 70s across the interior. Cloud cover will
increase late in the day and into Sunday night as a reinforcing
mid/upper level low drops southward down the Washington/Oregon
coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)
The aforementioned low will drop down the California coast Monday
afternoon and bring with it rain and isolated thunderstorms. Rain
chances begin early Monday morning across the North Bay and increase
in coverage and intensity throughout the afternoon across the
Central Coast. Precipitable water values are forecast to range
between 0.80-1.00" at this time with CAPE of around 400 J/kg, thus
the potential for isolated thunderstorms. As a colder air mass
filters in from the north, expecting rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday as the mid/upper level low
shifts inland either across the Bay Area or Central Coast on Tuesday
afternoon. Rain chances greatly diminish on Wednesday morning with
drier conditions returning by Wednesday night. Rainfall totals from
Monday through Wednesday currently look to range from 1.50"-2.50
(isolated up to 3.00") in the Santa Lucia Range and in the Santa Cruz
Mountains, with generally less than 1.50" elsewhere. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible within any stronger rain shower and/or
thunderstorm. This would lead to minor/nuisance flooding concerns
across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Beyond Thursday, there is uncertainty with the progression of the
upper level pattern. However, a general warming and drying trend
looks most likely as a shortwave ridge builds in wake of the exiting
trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
AM clouds and dense fog continue to erode giving way to VFR
conditions. A few fair weather cu will pop through out the day in
the 1500-4000 range. They`ll dissipate after sunset this evening.
VFR overnight with less chances for fog with better low level
mixing. KSTS has the best chance (30%) of seeing some fog
overnight. Onshore winds will increase through the
afternoon/evening before subsiding overnight.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few nearby cu. NW gusts up to 25 kt
this afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Same as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Less than 20% chc for cigs at MRY
tonight. Strato-cu may pile up on the hills just S of terminal.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 819 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Increasing northerly winds over the waters today, initially
developing south of Pigeon Point before spreading over all waters
later this afternoon. The stronger winds will result in hazardous
conditions with locally stronger winds and a Gale Warning along
the Big Sur coastline. The windy pattern will persist into early
next week. The pattern for the first half week remains unsettled
with more wind and rain expected.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion