Stiritz, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

834
FXUS63 KPAH 200606
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
106 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Above normal weekend start temperatures turn more seasonable
 beginning the new week, and may even trend cooler into the 70s
 over the back half of the week.
-Daily rain chances will bring appreciable rainfall to the
 region, with the first half of the week offering the best
 chance for heavier rains. Mean total areal average amounts from
 1 to 3 inches are anticipated to accumulate by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Clouds have scattered mostly and with dew point depressions
already running near saturation, expect patchy fog to develop
prior to daybreak.
The open wave that slung channeled vorticity across the area
Friday helped fire afternoon showers/storms will shift its axis
just east of the CWA, but another lobe of energy spills out of
the mean low pressure area as it lifts in open fashion across
our north. That in combo with subtle upper difluence south
should result in another afternoon of isolated-widely scattered
showers/storms. Heavy rain and lightning should continue as
primary hazards, but if a stronger storm can manage itself,
brief gusty winds like yesterday is on the table; that strong
storm chance may be a little higher in our far northeast Sunday
afternoon-evening, but should primarily focus north and east of
our CWA.
The pattern metamorphosis discussed at length in prior
discussions continues to be modeled into/thru next week with
only minor variations with time. Peak pops still look to be
early in the week when the low`s influence here is most robust.
PW`s around 1.5" will help with the potential for appreciable
rainfall to eventually mitigate our ongoing drought conditions,
but this may take the bulk of the week to see its fruitfulness.
While there is more variability in model resolution on the
handling of the emerging mid-late week broad upper cyclone, its
net sensible wx impact here is to dip high temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal norms, with some 70s making their
reappearance, which will likewise be welcomed by many. Mean,
areal-average weekly pcpn accumulations bring near certainty of
at least an inch, with potential for 2-3" in the high chance to
likely category, depending upon the model.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
With bases scattered and antecedent rainfall, expect patchy
pre-dawn fog to offer potential vsby restrictions. Isolated to
widely scattered showers/storms cannot be ruled out again, esp
during the peak heating hours, and may likewise offer
accompanying or temporary flight restrictions to cigs/vsbys.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion