Stockholm, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS63 KABR 050908
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
408 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20 to 30 percent chance for showers today east of the Missouri
Valley.
- A much cooler air mass will persist through the upcoming weekend
with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Overnight lows both
tonight and Saturday night are expected to dip into the mid to upper
30s. Some patchy frost will be possible Saturday night in the James
River Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Vorticity lobes will keep rotating into the region today in the
upper trough that has dug into the northern Plains. This unstable
northwest flow regime will keep light showers or sprinkles in the
forecast through the afternoon. Drier mid level air pushes in from
the west this evening, but some guidance suggests the sprinkles
could persist into the evening across the east. Northwest winds will
remain breezy today, but should stay below advisory criteria with
gusts to 35 mph.
Surface high pressure builds into the Plains late this evening
setting up a dry and cool Saturday. Highs today and Saturday will be
10 to 20 degrees below climo averages. Lows tonight will flirt with
frost conditions especially in the valleys between the Missouri and
James. For now, lowered temps a couple of degrees below guidance,
but will let the day shift determine areas where temps may dip that
critical one or two degrees further and hit the 36 degree threshold.
The confounding factors for strong radiational cooling tonight will
be wind speeds and some lingering clouds in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Saturday evening, an upper level low pressure system sits off to our
northeast over southern Ontario. This will continue to move east and
an upper level ridge will move towards the area, but stall over the
Rockies until late Tuesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the axis of the
ridge looks to be over our area as another low moves onto the
Pacific Coast. The trough connected to this low will move east and
be just off to our west as the long term closes. Down closer to the
surface, winds will start out of the northwest on the backside of
the lower level low before a high pressure center moves north out of
Texas and brings out lower level winds around to the south Sunday
afternoon. Winds will generally stay out of the south through the
period, with a short interlude of northerly winds on Tuesday as a
surface level low moves across the area.
Most of the long term is expected to be dry, with some slight
shower/storm chances returning for the later half of the work week.
Since this is 5, 6, 7 days out this is subject to change and details
are limited. Saturday night, models are showing a possibility of
lows in the low to mid 30s. The NBM has a 50-80% chance of
temperatures less than 38 degrees along the ND/SD border and in the
James River Valley. There is a possibility of frost in these areas
for a few hours just before sunrise. Saturday night/Sunday morning
is expected to have the coldest low temperature of the long term
forecast. Sunday highs are also expected to be the coolest of the
long term.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Areas of MVFR CIGs are forecast to move southward into the region by
early Friday morning. Otherwise, breezy northwest surface winds will
continue. Afternoon -SHRA/SHRA possible Friday afternoon for
KABR/KATY with brief MVFR VSBY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion