Stockton, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS65 KSLC 162208
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...The storm system is expected to push east tonight
making way for high pressure with dry and warm conditions
Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture returns to the area Friday
lingering through the weekend serving to increase chances for rain
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...The upper low is forecast to
continue meandering east at quite the slow pace as a chaotic upper
level pattern over the northern plains supports slow movement
through the short term. Following the departure of the upper low,
transient ridging is forecast to build in its wake with height rises
resulting in a brief warmup Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally,
northwest flow will result in generally drier conditions across UT
and southwest WY.
Tomorrow afternoon, a trailing shortwave on the western periphery of
the aforementioned upper low looks to dive south across western WY
toward northern UT. While this is occurring, the wave is expected to
amplify somewhat as it approaches some residual moisture located
across southwest WY, the Uintas, and far northeast UT, particularly
Duchesne county where confidence is somewhat higher due to slightly
better moisture quality. Elsewhere, conditions should remain quite
dry throughout the day through the overnight into Thursday
morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 336 AM MDT...
By Thursday, Utah and
southwest Wyoming remain under high pressure, sandwiched in between
the exiting low to our east and a weak circulation over southern
California. Thus, conditions will be largely quiet on Thursday, with
clear skies and near-normal temperatures across most of the area.
By late Thursday, however, moisture will begin to push into the area
from the southwest as the aforementioned California low nudges the
ridge axis to our east. With subtle upper-level diffluence within
this increasing moisture, chances for shower and thunderstorm
development will increase during the overnight hours. There is still
some uncertainty regarding timing, thus the spatial extent of these
nocturnal showers is still yet to be determined. This moisture will
quickly overspread the rest of the state through the day on Friday,
resulting in more scattered showers/thunderstorms. As this weakening
low ejects across northwestern Utah, increased shear could produce
more organization with these storms on Friday/Saturday afternoons.
Ensemble guidance suggests moisture peaks by Saturday, with an
overall downward trend thereafter as relatively zonal flow brings in
a drier air mass across at least northern/central Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Across southern Utah, there is much lower confidence in
when/if this moisture exits. Confidence is, however, increasing in
the longwave pattern heading into next week, with models largely
convening on a ridge building across the western US, with a cutoff
low rotating near southern California by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Quieter conditions will continue to settle in as
system departs. Precipitation chances remain low through Wed, and
skies remain clear to mostly clear with some very limited cumulus
development Wed afternoon. Winds remain fairly light and are
expected to follow a typical diurnal direction pattern (becoming
south between 02-04Z Wed, NW between 16-18Z Wed).
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Slow moving system will
continue to depart the region to the east. NE UT and SW WY will see
just enough lingering moisture/influence to result in modest chances
(~10-30%) of convection Wed afternoon. Otherwise, drier and quieter
conditions are expected at most area terminals with clear to mostly
clear skies and fairly light wind magnitudes.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
diminish this afternoon as the storm system progresses east.
Following this, high pressure develops in its wake bringing drier
and warmer conditions to UT on Wednesday and Thursday. Following
this, moisture returns to the state on Friday across southern UT as
southwesterly winds develop. Moisture will continue to overspread
the state throughout the weekend increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, perhaps continuing into next week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion