Stone Lake, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS63 KDLH 291132
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another warm, dry, and sunny day today.
- An abrupt increase in northeast winds off of Lake Superior
  this afternoon/evening and strong northeast winds on Tuesday
  may lead to a risk for rip currents along Minnesota and
  Wisconsin Point Beaches.
- Warm weather continues through this week, and gradually
  cooling down late this weekend into early next week.
- Mostly dry through Thursday (slight chances for rain here and
  there), then rain chances increase going into this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Skies are mostly clear this morning with just a few higher clouds in
northwest Minnesota. Persistent ridging is expected to remain in
place today, and most places will still be under the influence of
warm advection with light southerly flow. A dry air mass is expected
to remain in place today, though PWATs will be increasing gradually
with southerly flow. Relative humidity should fall appreciably this
afternoon, but not quite as much as it has the past couple days. RH
down to around 30-35% and perhaps locally lower will be possible for
most places. With light winds, fire weather conditions may be a bit
elevated, but are not expected to become near-critical. Otherwise, a
warm day with highs in the low 80s for most is expected with plenty
of sunshine today.
There is a stationary/cold front that will remain around the
International Border today with east-northeast flow to the north of
it associated with high pressure in Canada. This will slowly drift
south tonight, but also become somewhat diffuse. Late tonight into
Tuesday morning, there is a slight (~5-15%) chance for a few showers
and possibly a thunderstorm around the periphery of the front around
the International Border. There`s not very high confidence that
these will develop, but some weak upper level CVA and a
strengthening LLJ could kick off a little something. There`s a
possibility that much of it could be virga though, as the low-level
air mass remains pretty dry. Also associated with this front will be
a widespread wind shift to east/southeast winds and northeasterly
over Lake Superior. Winds will get a bit more breezy going into
Tuesday, especially over and near Lake Superior. Wave heights in the
2-5 ft range may lead to a high swim risk around the Twin Ports. The
onshore flow will lead to cooler temperatures around the periphery
of Lake Superior, but elsewhere, it will still be feeling like
summer with highs in the 70s and low 80s. There should be more
clouds around for Tuesday with increasing moisture aloft.
A strengthening nocturnal jet Tuesday night across North Dakota
into northwest Minnesota could bring another slight chance for
a few showers and perhaps a stray storm or two, but right now
it`s looking like that activity will largely stick around the
ND/MN border. Aside from that, a largely quiet Tuesday night
leading into an equally quiet Wednesday. Increasing low-level
moisture could mean some low stratus/fog, which could linger
through mid-day or so. Winds are also expected to be pretty
breezy with a tight pressure gradient developing as broad
surface high pressure moves east.
Wednesday night into Thursday, there are some hints that there could
be some showers around associated with some moisture advection and a
LLJ, but chances are only about 15-30%. This particular jet axis is
looking to stick around and move east very slowly going into Friday
and Saturday, and there could be some periodic chances for showers
and perhaps a few non-severe storms with a slow-moving cold front.
There could be some cyclogenesis that could bring a low pressure
system through during the weekend that could keep rain chances
persistent. At this time, it doesn`t look like rainfall amounts
should be significant with NBM probabilities for >0.75" in 24 hours
being only about 10-20% across the region. But, anytime there is a
slow-moving front, it`s worth keeping an eye on.
All the southwesterly warm air advection should keep temperatures on
the toasty side with highs in the 80s Thursday and Friday. As
that front gradually moves through Sunday into Monday, we might
start to see a return back to closer-to-normal fall weather.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Southwest winds at DLH are expected to persist until early
afternoon, but then a somewhat abrupt wind shift to southerly
and eventually east to northeasterly is expected in the late
afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions are expected to develop
with gusts around 15 kt by Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, winds are
expected to be more variable in direction and lighter in speed,
but generally switching from southerly to easterly through the
day. Expect prevailing VFR conditions through the period, but
there is a ~30% chance for a few showers and possibly a storm at
INL late tonight. Fog is likely at times at HYR later tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Light south to southwest winds through the morning, then fairly
quickly switching to northeasterly this afternoon. Speeds will
pick up somewhat quickly with gusts to around 15 kt this
evening, then increasing up to 25 kt along the North Shore by
morning. 15 to 25 kt wind gusts and waves rising up to 2 to 5 ft
are expected through Tuesday evening. Small Craft Advisories
have been issued. The probabilities for gales are very low
(145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ146-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion