Stone Mountain Trail, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS64 KMRX 162351
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
751 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Key Messages:
1. Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
through early this evening.
2. Unseasonably warm temperatures for the latter half of the week
through the weekend.
Discussion:
A frontal boundary is pulling southwestward across southwest
Virginia with easterly winds with dewpoints in the 40s/50s east of
this boundary and southwest winds and dewpoints in the 60s west.
This boundary along with spokes of energy rotating around mid-
Atlantic upper low, combined with orographic lift will produce
isolated to widely scattered showers. SPC meso-analysis shows
MLCAPES of 500-1000 so enough instability to produce embedded
thunder.
For tonight through the rest of the week, ensemble cluster
analysis and deterministic models show a drier airmass and upper
ridge building into the Tennessee valley. PWs of 0.8 to 1 inch
will be common keeping conditions mostly dry into the weekend. The
upper ridge will weekend early next week as a series of short-
waves ride over the ridge. However, airmass stays quite dry with
surface ridging into the southeast United States keep Gulf
moisture limited.
The building ridge and dry conditions will allow for unseasonably
warm afternoons for late this week through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail this forecast
cycle. Some brief fog will be possible around daybreak mainly near
TYS and TRI. Isolated showers will be possible but chances at each
terminal are too low to include in TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  87  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  84  60  86 /  20  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  84  59  86 /  10  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  80  56  83 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...McD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion