Streetman, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS64 KFWD 051059
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms may impact Friday night sporting events across
  North Texas. Lightning and downburst winds will be the main
  threats.
- Cooler weather and rain chances continue through Monday with the
  arrival of a cold front. Total rainfall amounts over the four
  day period are expected to be around .75 inch or less.
- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025/
/Today and Tonight/
Another hot afternoon is in store for much of North and Central
Texas ahead of an approaching cold front expected to arrive early
this evening.
Prior to the front`s arrival, expect increasing mid and upper
level clouds as a plume of moisture from TS Lorena in the E.
Pacific moves atop our region. This elevated moisture will likely
aid in keeping afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler
compared to yesterday. Today`s temperatures will likely peak in
the mid 90s along the Red River with slightly warmer temperatures
elsewhere.
With the front moving southward across North Texas in the
afternoon, mid/upper level moisture and shortwave overhead,
showers and storm could develop as early as 4pm in North Texas.
Thermal profiles are likely to be in an "inverted-V" shape,
meaning, the lowest 6500 feet will be fairly dry. Taking into
consideration to hot and dry lower atmosphere, any thunderstorm
that develops will likely have a threat for strong to severe
downburst winds.
Given the best timing for showers and storms coincide with start
beginning of Friday Night Lights activities, those across North
Texas should remain weather aware in the afternoon and evening.
Even if strong/severe winds do not impact your location, the
lightning threat footprint will be much larger than that of the
strong winds.
Zonal flow aloft is expected to maintain a fetch of moisture into
North and Central Texas through tonight. With elevated
instability in place, showers and a few storms cannot be ruled out
through the night. Given the much more stable lower-levels
overnight, the threat for strong to damaging winds will diminish,
leaving behind a continued lightning threat.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025/
/Saturday Onward/
A stark temperature difference is expected on Saturday compared
to yesterday and today thanks to the incoming cold front, arriving
later today. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with
mostly cloudy skies much of the day. Zonal flow in the mid and
upper levels will keep Pacific moisture atop North and Central
Texas. This should provide just enough moisture for a few showers
and isolated storms in the morning. By the afternoon, a temporary
break from the rain chances is expected as the shortwave moves
away from North and Central Texas.
The period of no/low precipitation chances will be short-lived as
the next wave of ascent moves overhead on Sunday. An elongated
area of high pressure across Mexico will drive additional Pacific
moisture across our region. Embedded shortwaves will once again
ignite showers and storms in the afternoon. Although severe
weather is not expected, lightning will once again pose a threat
to anyone outdoors. Rain chances will linger through Monday before
a more prolonged drying trend commences as we approach the middle
of the week.
By midweek, a well amplified ridge will begin to develop along
the Plains in response to an amplifying trough to our west. This
should shunt precipitation chances away from our region and lead
to a gradual warming trend. By Thursday, North and Central Texas
will return to temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, which is 1-3
degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
High clouds have overspread all of North and Central Texas as
Pacific moisture continues to stream eastward. A cold front is
moving southward across Oklahoma and will arrive in North Texas
this afternoon. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop with southerly winds in place. The
greatest concentration for thunderstorm activity is expected to be
just north of the D10 airspace. For the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex TAF sites, there continues to be a potential for
thunderstorm activity between 22-03z, however, confidence in the
exact timing and coverage remains low. As the front moves through,
expect northerly winds this evening, continuing midday Saturday.
After the main VCTS window this evening, rain showers will
persist through tonight and into tomorrow morning over the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Coverage will remain scattered with
overall precipitation coverage below 50%.
For Waco, the cold front is expected to arrive closer to 06z with
minimal precipitation. The main impact will be due to the wind
shift out of the north with winds between 8-12kts.
Beyond 12z Saturday, a gradual decrease in ceilings is expected
with MVFR chances increasing after 12z.
Hernandez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  66  79  68  83 /  20  50  30  20  20
Waco                99  70  83  69  84 /   0  30  40  20  50
Paris               94  65  79  64  81 /  10  50  40  20  10
Denton              99  62  80  65  84 /  30  50  20  20  20
McKinney            98  65  79  66  83 /  20  50  30  20  20
Dallas             100  67  81  69  84 /  10  40  30  20  20
Terrell             97  66  80  67  83 /  10  50  40  20  20
Corsicana           99  70  82  69  85 /   0  40  40  20  30
Temple              99  70  84  68  85 /   0  20  30  20  50
Mineral Wells      100  63  78  65  84 /  20  40  20  20  30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion