Stumpy Point, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

275
FXUS62 KMHX 191118
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
718 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and stall
offshore. A coastal trough or coastal low may then develop along
the stalled front early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0715 Friday...Clear skies, calm winds, and a boost in low
level moisture from yesterday`s seabreeze have led to the
development of fog and/or low level stratus. A dense fog
advisory has been issued due to VIS 1/4mi or less at times for
portions of the FA from Lenoir county north, and east along
HWY264 corridor. Have also issued an SPS for VIS one mile or
less for Duplin and Inland Onslow counties. As of 0645, have
added another SPS. Now, all zones save for coastal Onslow and
Wern Carteret counties and the OBX are under some sort of fog
product, though patchy fog does exist in these locations, but
not dense enough to warrant a headline. All of these products
are valid until 14Z.
Expect fog to scour out by mid morning. Another day with light
and variable winds until sea/sea/river breezes take over,
turning winds onshore (generally out of the E) by late
afternoon. Mostly clear skies, save for some fairweather clouds,
and building heights due to high pressure settling overhead
allow it to get pretty warm for all locales; MaxTs make a run
for 90 inland, warmest SWern zones, a degree or two either side
of 80 OBX, low 80s Crystal Coast beaches. Quiet/dry weather in
store but eyes will be just off the SECONUS coast watching the
progression of the coastal troughing just offshore here as this
will be the main system that could impact the area later this
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 0230 Friday...Another quiet and calm night in store
to kick off the weekend. Clear skies and winds calming will
lead to another decent rad cooling setup. Adding in the uptick
in low level moisture from today`s seabreeze will once again set
the stage for fog development. Have areas of fog mentioned for
all mainland zones, which could be just as dense, if not denser
than this morning`s fog. MinTs low 60s away from water, mid to
upper 60s coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Warmer and potentially unsettled weather over the upcoming week
Late Saturday into Sunday, an upper level shortwave is forecast to
translate east across the Carolinas, and then move offshore. While
this wave doesn`t look particularly strong, it may provide just
enough mid-level height falls to support the development of a small
coastal low within a more broad offshore coastal trough. Hi-
resolution guidance is the most aggressive with this potential,
while the lower-resolution global guidance is generally less
enthusiastic. For now, the forecast will continue to reflect
more of a coastal trough scenario as opposed to a coastal low.
Winds over the weekend were nudged up some, though, to account
for the hi-res guidance scenario (which is within the realm of
possibilities). Stay tuned through the weekend as the coastal
low scenario, should it occur, would probably be a scenario with
less lead time than would be expected or preferred. In the
coastal trough scenario, most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity would stay offshore, while the coastal low would
potentially provide a bump up in the chance, especially along
the coast. Either way, temperatures are expected to drop down
some compared to today`s highs thanks to the increasing
northeasterly onshore flow.
Upper level ridging briefly shifts overhead on Monday, then
attention turns to a positively-tilted upper trough that is forecast
to drop south out of Canada next week. Medium range guidance
continue to struggle with the evolution of this trough, specifically
regarding if and where a cutoff low develops east of the Rockies.
Significant run-to-run model changes only add to the increased
uncertainty regarding the upper level pattern next week.
All that said, the general theme appears to be warm with increasing
moisture and instability through the week. This should support a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms compared to what we have
seen over the past few weeks. Given the uncertainties with the
cutoff low, it will be harder to pin down which day(s) will carry a
higher risk of showers. For now, then, we`ll continue to advertise a
modest risk of showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) most days
from Wednesday on.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Evening/...
As of 01715 Friday...Widespread LIFR with pockets of VLIFR
across the area due to fog and stratus. Fog lingers until
0900-1100edt. After this point, VFR conditions will return and
continue through FRI evening with light and var winds becoming
predominantly E/SEerly once the seabreeze passes through.
Another round of fog is forecast for Friday night into Saturday
morning with clearing skies and winds calming. Have introduced
IFR fog for all terminals this TAF cycle though LIFR/VLIFR is
possible again.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...Areas of FG with LIFR conditions may be
ongoing Saturday morning across parts of ENC, with VFR
conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northeast winds will be possible over the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens across the region. We`ll be watching
for the potential development of a weak coastal low Saturday
night into Sunday, as this would lead to an increased risk of
sub VFR conditions, especially along the coast. In this
scenario, a few TSRA would also be possible. Confidence in the
development of a coastal low is low, though, so stay tuned
through the weekend. Conditions should improve moving into early
next week as high pressure moves in with drier conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 0300 Friday...Light and variable winds tonight across the
board. As a result, seas continue to lay down through the
period with buoy obs currently showing 2ft out of the SE @
9-10sec. Benign marine conditions continue with variable winds
AoB 7kt through the morning, waves 1-2 ft, and clear skies.
Inland rivers and sounds glass early. Be cautious for fog,
particularly for inland rivers where winds are calmest.
Nearshore winds become onshore 7-12kt as seabreeze circ sets up
this afternoon, adding some wind chop on top of the rolling
2ft-ers. Winds become predominantly NEerly after sunset tonight
as coastal troughing amplifies, building seas back to 2-3ft.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Monitoring potential for SCA conditions over the weekend
 - Elevated seas from distant Gabrielle possible mid-week
The key message over the weekend is that marine conditions won`t be
as benign as today thanks to northeasterly winds building to 15-
25kt. Guidance is mixed on how strong the winds will get. If a
coastal low manages to develop offshore, the potential exists for 25-
35kt winds. Meanwhile, if a low doesn`t develop, winds should hold
in the 15-25kt range. Either way, rivers and sounds will be
choppier, and the coastal waters will see building seas. Check back
for updates through the weekend in case the risk of a coastal low
increases. For now, the most likely scenario is 15-25kt winds and 4-
7ft seas. A coastal low, should it develop, would also likely carry
a higher risk of thunderstorms, especially for the coastal waters
north of Cape Lookout.
By late Monday or Tuesday, winds are expected to lay down to 5-10kt.
Seas may remain elevated longer, though, due to distant swell from
Gabrielle out in the central Atlantic.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-091-193.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion