Sugar City Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS65 KPUB 091731
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue to warm today, with dry conditions over
  the plains and increasing moisture in the mountains.
- Showers, at times moderate to heavy, are expected across the
  mountains Friday through Saturday.
- Flooding may be possible in the San Juans Friday through Saturday.
- Mountain showers persist on and off through midweek next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
The preponderance of model and ensemble members suggesting heavy
rainfall over the eastern San Juan mountains from Friday through
Saturday has prompted the issuance of a Flood Watch for Flash
Flooding. This will run from Noon Friday through Midnight
Sunday. Several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall will spread
into the eastern San Juans with the rainfall today through
Friday morning priming the initially dry soil conditions. The
risk for flash flooding amplifies for Friday afternoon through
Saturday evening as rich tropical moisture from the remains of
Priscilla spreads into the region in deep southwest flow aloft,
and progressively saturated ground conditions leads to the
potential for efficient runoff and flash flooding potential.
Soundings are warm with snow levels staying around or above
13,500 feet, and southwest upslope flow will likely lead to
continued regeneration of thunderstorms on the southwest facing
slopes which will move northeastward over the mountains and
into the adjacent Upper Rio Grande Valley. Latest guidance (a
mix of 00z, 06z and incoming 12z runs) suggest around 1-3 inches
of rainfall for this region with the peak amounts falling
Friday night through Saturday over the southwest facing slopes.
Flash flooding of creeks and streams will be possible which
could be life-threatening if shallow warm rain processes set up
along the southwest facing slopes. Campers and hunters should
be extremely cautious and consider postponing outdoor backcountry
plans in or near the eastern San Juan mountains. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
High pressure remains in place across the region, with southwest
flow aloft continuing to bring in more moisture. As we move
throughout the day, tropical moisture from the cyclone off the coast
of Mexico will continue funneling into the mountains, leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
PWATs are expected to steadily increase over the area, with a slowly
increasing chance of heavy rainfall. However, very little
instability is forecast over the higher terrain today, so other than
the heavy rain storm impacts should be minimal. Meanwhile,
conditions across the eastern plains remain dry, though cloud cover
will start increasing this afternoon, especially over I-25 and west.
Temperatures across the area remain far above normal, with mid-high
80s across the plains and 70s over the valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Friday: For the last day of the week, active weather is anticipated
for portions of the region. Southwesterly flow will be in place over
south central and southeastern Colorado, bringing an increase in
orographic forcing. Along with that, moisture will be on the rise as
this flow begins to tap tropical moisture from a storm system in
the Pacific. With the increase in both forcing and moisture, showers
are expected to increase in coverage, though mainly along the
mountains where orographic forcing will be greatest. Given this
southwesterly flow, a few showers may spill across the valleys as
well throughout the day. As for the plains, dry conditions are
anticipated to prevail. Otherwise, breezy winds are expected for the
area, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies for the region, but
particularly west of the I-25 corridor. Temperatures Friday will be
above seasonal values for mid October, especially across the plains.
Friday Night - Saturday: Heading into the weekend, active weather
continues, particularly for the mountains. Southwesterly flow will
persist over the area, though by this point the aforementioned
tropical system will be absorbed into the broader flow and ejected
across south central and southeastern Colorado, bringing a surge in
tropical moisture and forcing. With the large rise in forcing and
moisture, widespread showers are expected along the higher terrain,
but especially across the San Juan Mountains where 2-3 inches of
liquid are expected given favorable wind orientation into the
terrain allowing for strong and persistent orographic forcing.
Confidence is high (70-80%) in this QPF given strong agreement
between both deterministic and ensemble model guidance, some of
which show even higher values. In addition, most, if not all, of
this precipitation is expected to be rain given this is a warm
airmass and snow levels will be around 13,500 ft. Given the
precipitation forecast, some flooding will be possible across the
San Juan Mountains. Otherwise, showers are anticipated to spill
across the valleys throughout this period, though with much lighter,
and the plains are expected to remain dry. Outside of all of that,
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are anticipated to persist areawide,
with breezy conditions for many, especially across the plains and
San Luis Valley though, where wind gusts around 30 mph are expected.
Looking at temperatures, another above seasonal temperature day is
anticipated, but especially across the eastern plains, where
downsloping winds will keep temperatures well above seasonal values.
Sunday - Wednesday: For the remainder of the long term period, some
active weather will continue for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Overall, southwesterly will persist over the
region, though with potential embedded waves/troughs influencing the
area. Model guidance is in agreement above the broad southwesterly
being in place, but not so much above how and when the embedded
waves will influence the area. This tends to lower forecast
confidence some, but overall, showers are anticipated to persist on
and off across the mountains given the orographic forcing in place,
with drier conditions across the valleys and plains. There may be an
increase in showers across the entire region Monday night into
Tuesday as another moisture tap gets pulled northward, but
confidence in how much precipitation will develop is low (30) as this
will be dependent on how one of the embedded waves evolves. Beyond
all of that, periods of increased cloud cover and breezy winds will
persist for south central and southeastern Colorado. As for
temperatures, Sunday will be the warmest day, with another above
seasonal temperature day expected. As for Monday onward, a cool down
is anticipated as a cold front is expected to drop southward across
the area, bringing a cool down to many, especially on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR conditions expected at all three terminals today with
lowering VFR cigs tonight into Friday, especially for KALS. Odds
of showers at the TAF sites looks too low to mention, but could
come close to the KALS terminal Thursday morning depending on
how quickly showers fall apart as the move northeastward off the
Eastern San Juan mountains and across the valley. Any
precipitation will be spotty and light. Otherwise, expect a
general increase in southerly to southeasterly winds today with
a lull and a trend towards diurnally driven light winds
overnight. South to southeasterly winds will pick up at all
three terminals by late morning with gusts to around 15-20 kts
possible Fri afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for
COZ067-068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion