Sugarloaf Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS62 KKEY 050827
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
It has been a mixed bag of activity overnight across the Florida
Keys` coastal waters. Showers and occasional thunderstorms have
been waxing and waning all night. Activity in the last hour has
begun taking a more noticeable uptick, especially across the
Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, a stationary front lies in close
proximity to the Keys, which is causing winds to wobble between
northeast and east to southeast. Lastly, tides continue to
gradually climb as we approach the Harvest Moon. This has resulted
in the Coastal Flood Advisory being expanded to now include all
of the Florida Keys.
.FORECAST...
The aforementioned stationary front will stay true to its name
over the coming days. This boundary will make subtle moves north
and south but in the grand scheme of things it will generally stay
over the Florida Keys. This will result in an active period mired
with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms at
times. At the same time, a series of weak easterly undulations
will round the base of a broad ridge that extends from the
Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic.
These undulations will allow rain chances to peak and lull,
meaning there will be days that are wetter than others. As of
right now, there remains uncertainty where and when these impulses
will ripple across the stationary front. For now, will stay the
course and keep advertising with above normal rain chances through
the next several days. Regardless if we get these easterly
undulations to pass through, we will have a moist, deep easterly
flow, which will promote at least above normal rain chances.
Earlier indications were that we would see the broad high build
equatorward across the Keys, but the high looks to stay further
north. As a result, while we will be under the influence of the
high, we are not expecting freshening easterly breezes for the
later half of the forecast period at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the island chain. Boaters
can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. From synopsis: a
combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of
low pressure situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy
weather pattern through the next several days. This will maintain
above normal rain chances through the entire forecast period. In
addition, it will keeps winds fluctuating between northeast and
southeast at times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to
stay north of our waters but will bear watching for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  79  89  79 /  30  30  40  40
Marathon  87  79  87  78 /  40  40  40  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion