Summitt, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS64 KTSA 060203
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
903 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- A strong cold front continues to move through the region today
with a large temperature gradient across the front. Scattered
showers and storms will persist across the area through tonight,
eventually becoming confined to the south and east into Saturday.
- A storm or two may become strong to severe across SE OK and W-
Central AR this evening and early tonight. Strong to damaging wind
gusts and hail are the primary hazards.
- Clearing and drying conditions from the north to south Saturday,
with temperatures well below normal this weekend. Warmer and dry
conditions are favored next week, with only a slight chance of rain
in parts of NE OK on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 857 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The strong cold front has pushed through the entire area. Much
cooler air is pouring in from the north, with temperatures ranging
from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 70s in the south.
Temperatures will continue to cool overnight, with most areas in
the 50s to low 60s by morning. A few areas may even touch the
upper 40s near the KS border.
Meanwhile, storm activity is ramping up across southeast OK this
evening. Scattered storms will continue to move into the area the
next few hours. There is sufficient instability and wind shear to
support a few severe thunderstorms near and just north of the Red
River. Indeed, several severe thunderstorms have already been
observed just south of the Red River for wind and hail. The main
impacts with any severe storms would be wind gusts to 60 mph and
hail up to 1" or so. The severe threat will wind down by midnight
or so. Then, for the remainder of the night, scattered showers and
non severe storms will continue, focusing across southeast OK and
northwest AR, but a few will extend into northeast OK as well.
Overall rain totals will not be high, but a few locations under
storms will see brief heavy rain. Winds will remain breezy out of
the north to northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Low rain/ thunder chances linger across southern portions of the FA
tomorrow before drier conditions set in for the remainder of the
weekend with post frontal high pressure. Guidance continues to
suggest potential for a subtle wave within the NW flow to impact the
region Tuesday. Will maintain low rain chances during this period,
mainly across portions of NE OK, with dry conditions more likely
elsewhere. By midweek and beyond, upper level ridging builds into
the region bringing warmer and predominantly dry conditions through
the end of the forecast period. High temps are forecast to be held
in the mid-upper 70s tomorrow before increasing back into the lower
80s for early next week. Temperatures return back to near seasonal
normals Wednesday through Friday... generally in the upper 80s or
lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact
most terminals between 2-10Z this evening and tonight, first
impacting the eastern OK sites then moving east. As the
precipitation moves through, temporary reductions in visibility
and lowered ceilings may occur in eastern OK, but more substantial
reductions with greater persistence will occur in northwest
Arkansas. In particular, KFSM may see stronger thunderstorms with
heavy rain. Breezy northerly winds will become more easterly with
time and weaken. Skies will clear out from northwest to southeast
on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  57  81 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   62  81  61  84 /  50  20   0   0
MLC   59  78  60  82 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   50  77  52  80 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   54  78  52  82 /  60  20   0   0
BYV   54  78  51  81 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   58  78  58  81 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   52  78  52  80 /  50   0   0   0
F10   55  77  56  79 /  30  20   0  10
HHW   62  78  63  80 /  60  30  10  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion