Sumpter, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS63 KILX 291816
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and hot conditions this week will lead to worsening drought
  impacts and an increased risk of field fires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Midday surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the
central Great Lakes southwest to TX. Light northeast to calm
winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 80s to
around 90F were found across central IL. 50s dewpoints produced RH
values of 25-30%.
12z model trends offer little hope for a break in this pattern
through the upcoming weekend. Upper level ridging beneath the
omega block looks to peak today, with very gradually lowering
heights through next weekend as a deep western US trough slowly
moves into the Plains. Light northeast low level flow will become
established over the next couple days which should knock a few
degrees off high temperatures. Large diurnal ranges will occur in
the low RH airmass, so lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s will be
favored through the period. By late week into the weekend the MSLP
gradient tightens a bit as the high moves well east and low
pressure develops over the Plains. This will result in a more
sustained southerly flow and the potential for 15-20 mph gusts,
primarily Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Any precipitation chances
associated with the western trough stay off to our northwest
through the weekend.
Given several more days of hot/warm and dry conditions, worsening
drought impacts will be seen across central and SE IL. In
addition, field fires will also be a concern as harvest activity
peaks. The potential for low-end wind gusts this weekend combined
with dry fuels and low RH could lead to an elevated fire risk.
25
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mainly clear skies with a few diurnal cu through midday Tuesday.
Light/variable winds will trend light northeast this afternoon and
again on Tuesday.
25
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Record high temperatures through Wednesday:
Location       Monday    Tuesday    Wednesday
--------     ---------- ----------  ---------
Bloomington  100 (1953)  98 (1953)  92 (1897)
Champaign     99 (1953)  91 (1971)  92 (1897)
Charleston    99 (1953)  92 (1933)  94 (2019)
Decatur      100 (1953)  94 (1922)  93 (1897)
Lincoln      101 (1953)  93 (1952)  91 (2019)
Olney        101 (1953)  93 (1952)  94 (1952)
Peoria        98 (1953)  91 (1933)  89 (1937)
Springfield  100 (1953)  92 (1971)  91 (2019)
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion