Sunland Park New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS64 KEPZ 082325
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- Dry conditions Thursday and Friday.
- Remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Priscilla will flow over
   the area this weekend bringing areawide rain chances.
- Another tropical system will flow over the area early next week
   continuing areawide rain chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Upper high continues to build into the area tonight and tomorrow,
retrograding from central TX. Mid level capping inversion will keep
the area dry Thursday and into Friday as high pressure influences
us. Pressure gradient stays somewhat tight over the area but
especially over western locations like the Lordsburg Playa and even
the remainder of Hidalgo county and into Luna county. Breezy
conditions will continue to be seen in those areas each afternoon
and overnight time frames with wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts
to 30-35 mph. Patchy blowing dust possible but confidence is low
with regards to how low visibility reductions will become.
High pressure will meander around the west TX area Friday before
being shunted south into Mexico due to a passing trough Saturday
into Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will guide Hurricane
Priscilla`s moisture northward into Baja California, SoCal, and SW
AZ Saturday morning but our rain chances begin Saturday afternoon
west of the Continental Divide and will march eastward slowly
throughout the weekend. Forecasted PW values are around 1.2-1.3"
which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. If
this pattern holds, this could even be a chance for record breaking
PWs. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall which could lead to
flash flooding if they can tap into some instability. One thing that
will help with the flooding threat is the fast storm motions that
are expected both afternoons with speeds of 15-25 mph. The
aforementioned trough looks to swing by Saturday evening and into
Sunday which will help keep storm activity going throughout the
overnight.
We`re not done with the rain chances yet! Another tropical storm
looks to make its way into the CONUS by early in the work week
taking a very similar path that Priscilla took. Confidence is low
with regards to this forecast so far out, but more rain chances
could be on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Mid-high clouds stream overhead from the southwest tonight
associated with TS Priscilla`s moisture. CIGs remain high around
20kft as storm chances remain confined to the higher terrain early
this evening before dissipating around sunset. Dry conditions
prevail for all terminals through the period as high pressure
aloft builds in from the east. Gusts up to 20kts linger early this
evening from E-SE and redevelop tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise,
winds AOB 10kts tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay well
above critical thresholds. Thursday and Friday will be dry, min RHs
will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the higher terrain the
next few afternoons. Tropical remnants look to flow over the area
this weekend allowing for good areawide rain chances. Storms will be
prone to heavy rainfall if they are able to tap into some
instability. Another round of tropical remnants possible starting
early next week which could continue areawide rain chances.
Breezy southeast winds will persist each overnight and afternoon
starting tonight through Friday afternoon. 20 foot wind speeds will
be 10-15 mph across the lowlands with the breeziest conditions seen
near Deming and especially west of Deming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  67  86  67 /  20  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            80  56  81  56 /  20   0  10   0
Las Cruces               80  60  82  61 /  20  10  10   0
Alamogordo               80  58  83  60 /  40  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               58  42  61  43 /  40  20  10   0
Truth or Consequences    78  60  79  59 /  20  20  10   0
Silver City              75  56  76  56 /  10  10  10   0
Deming                   83  63  85  63 /  10  10  10   0
Lordsburg                82  64  83  64 /  10  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       83  66  84  67 /  10  10  10   0
Dell City                83  58  84  58 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             87  64  88  64 /  20   0  10   0
Loma Linda               76  58  77  58 /  20   0  10   0
Fabens                   86  64  86  64 /  20   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             82  63  83  63 /  10  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           81  62  82  63 /  30  10  10   0
Jornada Range            80  60  81  60 /  30  10  10   0
Hatch                    83  61  84  60 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus                 84  64  85  64 /  10  10  10   0
Orogrande                80  59  81  59 /  30  10  10   0
Mayhill                  68  47  71  47 /  40  20  10   0
Mescalero                70  46  73  48 /  40  20  10   0
Timberon                 68  45  69  46 /  30  10  10   0
Winston                  70  50  72  50 /  20  20  20   0
Hillsboro                78  58  79  56 /  20  10  10   0
Spaceport                79  58  80  58 /  30  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             75  52  76  53 /  20  20  20  10
Hurley                   76  58  78  57 /  10  10  10   0
Cliff                    83  60  84  60 /  20  10  10   0
Mule Creek               78  56  80  58 /  30  20  10  10
Faywood                  75  59  77  58 /  10  10  10   0
Animas                   83  63  85  62 /  10  10  10   0
Hachita                  82  62  83  61 /  10  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           83  60  85  60 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               79  60  80  60 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion