Sunny Hill Middle School Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS64 KMEG 131723
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. High
  temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid 80s by
  Wednesday.
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Saturday as
  a cold front approaches the area. While uncertainty remains,
  there is a potential for some strong thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Another beautiful day across the Mid-South under a sunny sky with
temperatures spanning the upper 60s to low 70s. Mainly a
persistence forecast will be in place through Friday, with high
pressure lingering across the region. As the high drifts further
east, expect for high temperatures to rise a few degrees by
midweek into the back half of the week. Highs will generally
remain in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow, before increasing
to the mid to upper 80s by Thursday and Friday.
A notable pattern shift is expected next weekend, with a return
of showers and thunderstorms to the area. An upper-level trough
will move off of the Rockies on Friday, pushing eastward into the
weekend and bringing the Mid-South our first shot at showers and
thunderstorms in about a week. While confidence is high that all
of the Mid-South will likely see showers and thunderstorms at
some point through the weekend, confidence in timing and overall
severity is still low at this point. Taking a look at ensemble
guidance, LREF joint probs are favorable (around 50% to 60%) for
locations west of the Mississippi River for there to be some
severe weather potential. This potential will largely be dependent
on the eventual path of the trough, with notable differences once
guidance is broken down further. GEFS solutions favor an earlier
arrival of this system, but not as deep of a trough axis across
the area. In contrast, the ENS favors a slower arrival, but a
deeper trough axis. GEFS favors more of a Saturday
afternoon/evening timeframe with ENS favoring a Saturday
evening/Sunday timeframe. Something worth mentioning and watching
in the coming days, especially if you have outdoor activities this
upcoming weekend. Behind this frontal boundary, dry conditions
will return to the area with a notable cool down. First glance at
guidance hints at high temperatures returning back to the 70s by
the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions and light northeast winds continue. By sunrise
Tuesday morning, northeast winds will pick up to around 10 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Dry conditions persist through Friday, with minRH values remaining
in the 30% to 40% range. Light winds are expected through this
timeframe, thus keeping the potential for major fire danger
concerns low.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion