Sunset, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

888
FXUS61 KCAR 201312
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in Saturday night and exits to the east
Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
725 AM Update...Update to hazards only...see below.
Today... Coolest airmass of the season is here. Chilly start to
the day, with some places in the north below 35. Frost
formation is fairly limited though due to how dry the airmass
is, and because there is a slight breeze for many places.
Sunny today, with likely not even any cumulus formation. Highs
ranging from the upper 50s north to mid 60s Downeast. Very dry
air with afternoon relative humidities in the mid 20s to mid
30s. High pressure will still be moving in and centered to our
west, so still breezy, especially in the northeast, with winds
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph mainly in Aroostook County.
Tonight...
High pressure moves overhead, setting the stage for good
radiational cooling, and we are looking at the coldest night of
the season for most places, with readings generally a little
cooler than this morning. Went ahead and issued freeze warnings
for most of the northern half of the area, and frost advisories
for all but the immediate coast. That said, will need to
evaluate whether the frost advisory needs to be expanded to the
coast. Patchy valley fog tonight as well.
Sunday...
High pressure moves off to the east and we will begin a warming
trend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Generally sunny with
just a few increasing high clouds in the afternoon coming in
from the southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure exiting to the east Sunday night will allow a return
southwesterly flow across the region, especially over the north.
This will result in a milder night than recent nights will lows
genearally from around 40 north to the mid 40s Downeast.
A return southwesterly flow will continue on Monday ushering in
milder air across the area and boosting highs to around 70. Downeast
will remain mostly sunny closer to the high. Some clouds will begin
to increase over the west and north ahead of a very weak open
shortwave approaching from the west. The weak shortwave will support
a low to our north which may brush northern areas with some light
showers. Otherwise, Monday night will be mostly cloudy, with more
clouds north, and mild lows in the upper 40s to near 50.
Tuesday will remain mostly cloudy as the low to our north slides
east and pulls a cold front through the area. Some light scattered
showers will still be possible with the best chances for showers
over the north. Otherwise, Tuesday will be seasonable with highs
from the upper 60s north to the mid 70s Downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front continues south of the area Tuesday night as the
upper trough slowly crosses the area. This may bring a
continued chance for some scattered showers Tuesday night.
However, the northeast remains under longwave subsidence meaning
large scale descending air will limit support for rain.
The upper trough will swing east on Wednesday as high pressure
builds in from the northwest to bring partial clearing and slightly
cooler conditions. High pressure will crest over the area Thursday
then continue to the southeast on Friday as another weak upper
shortwave approached with another chance of showers. The chance for
showers may continue into Saturday before a new Canadian high pushes
down from the north. This will bring clearing late Saturday into
Saturday night followed by a sunny Sunday next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today...Very high confidence in VFR everywhere. NW wind 10-15
kts with gusts 20-25 kts, mainly at Aroostook County sites
(FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL).
Tonight...Winds die off quickly toward sunset, and become light.
VFR early, but potential for patchy valley fog late. Best shot
of IFR is PQI but also a possibility at HUL and CAR.
Sunday...VFR with S/SW wind 5-10 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR. Light SW wind.
Monday...VFR. Light S wind.
Monday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north. Light
SW wind.
Tuesday...VFR, to MVFR at times over the north. Light S wind
becoming W.
Tuesday night...MVFR becoming VFR over the north. MVFR south. Light
N wind.
Wednesday...VFR north, MVFR becoming VFR south. Light N wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft levels.
SHORT TERM: Seas may build up to 5 ft late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Otherwise, wind and seas should be below SCA into the middle of next
week and vsby should be good.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph today, with
lighter winds closer to the coast. Minimum afternoon relative
humidities will range from 25 to 35 percent today. The next
potential wetting rain is Tuesday with a cold front. Right now,
the chance of at least 0.1 inch of rain is around 50 percent,
and the chance of at least 0.5 inch rain is around 25
percent...not exactly impressive. Likelihood is that drought
conditions will worsen.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MEZ001>006.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Melanson
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Foisy/Melanson/Bloomer
Marine...Foisy/Melanson/Bloomer
Fire Weather...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion