Sunspot, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

703
FXUS64 KEPZ 281201 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
601 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, then more
   widespread thunderstorms along and east of the Rio Grande
   Sunday afternoon. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and
   flash flooding. A few storms may become strong to severe.
- Drier and warmer weather Tuesday through the rest of the week
   ahead. Lowland highs back in the upper eighties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Expecting a steady uptick in showers and thunderstorms tonight as
a weak vort max moves through the prevailing southwest flow
aloft. Upper low currently sits over western AZ and HRRR has been
consistent developing scattered to numerous showers early Sunday
morning along the Rio Grande valley. Good chance El Paso and Las
Cruces pick up some overnight rains.
Upper low begins to open up and progress towards the Four Corners
region on Sunday, pushing the plume of deeper moisture eastward
as well. Above normal precipitable water values 1.0-1.2" along the
east of the Rio Grande tomorrow, where numerous thunderstorms are
expected Sunday afternoon. Increased deep layer (0-6km) shear
around 30-40 knots could help organize convection and lead to a
few severe thunderstorms Sunday, especially across Otero and
Hudspeth Counties where coverage will be highest. Portions of the
Hudspeth/Otero mesa and Sacramento Mountains could see new rain
amounts 0.50-1.00". Training storms will be capable of localized
flooding, but individual storm motions will be fairly quick moving
(to the northeast at 25-35 mph).
Monday will be the beginning of a drying trend, as the Pacific low
opens up and progresses over the Central Rockies. Rain chances do
hang around Monday afternoon, especially over central New Mexico
and the Sacramento Mountains. Most of the I-10 corridor will stay
dry on Monday.
Upper high pressure builds in to the U.S. Southwest Tuesday
through the rest of the week, bringing and end to rain chances as
allowing temperatures to climb back to above normal by next
Wednesday. Lowland highs will return to the upper 80s, and we may
even see a few more 90s in El Paso. Long term outlook points to
the end of the 2025 Monsoon Season, with future rain chances
becoming increasingly influenced by the polar jet flow and Pacific
low pressure systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Isold shwrs and tstms, mainly along the Rio Grande Valley and ewd,
are tracking nly to nely across the forecast area. Expect activity
to persist through early hours of the TAF period before a brief
break in the early aftn. Another round of shwrs and tstms will
initiate in the aftn, favoring areas along the Rio Grande Valley
and ewd once again. A few storms may become strong to severe,
capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Any direct hits to
terminals will likely result in lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Activity
will persist into the evening before tapering off aft 29/06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper low will continue pushing eastward across the Desert
Southwest today, a generous moisture tap snaking up northern
Mexico out ahead of it. This will lead to another day of
unsettled weather across the Borderland. The abundant moisture
will enhance the risk of burn scar flash flooding, particularly
amongst the Sacramento complex of burn scars. A few storms may
become strong to severe this afternoon, capable of damaging winds
and large hail. The upper low will fall into an open wave Sunday
night, the more favorable forcing being lost as it glides up
towards the Rockies. With ample moisture still available, isolated
storms will favor the high terrain in the afternoon on Monday. A
warming and drying trend will take hold from that point forward,
though minimum RH is not anticipated to dip below 20 percent.
Light winds will prevail, save for those generated by thunderstorm
outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  81  63  86 /  70  30   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  74  52  79 /  70  50   0   0
Las Cruces               57  78  58  82 /  60  30  10   0
Alamogordo               57  78  56  81 /  60  40  10   0
Cloudcroft               40  56  40  60 /  60  60  10  10
Truth or Consequences    57  76  57  79 /  60  20  10   0
Silver City              52  73  53  76 /  30  30  10   0
Deming                   58  81  58  84 /  50  20   0   0
Lordsburg                58  79  59  82 /  10  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  79  62  83 /  70  30   0   0
Dell City                58  79  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  81  59  84 /  60  50   0   0
Loma Linda               55  72  55  76 /  70  40   0   0
Fabens                   60  80  59  84 /  60  30   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  78  59  82 /  70  20   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  78  59  82 /  70  40  10   0
Jornada Range            57  77  57  80 /  70  40  10   0
Hatch                    59  79  58  83 /  60  30  10   0
Columbus                 60  81  59  84 /  40  10   0   0
Orogrande                57  76  55  79 /  70  40  10   0
Mayhill                  47  66  45  72 /  50  70   0  10
Mescalero                45  68  44  72 /  60  60  10  10
Timberon                 45  65  44  69 /  70  60  10   0
Winston                  47  70  46  74 /  50  30  10   0
Hillsboro                54  76  53  80 /  60  30  10   0
Spaceport                56  76  56  79 /  70  30  10   0
Lake Roberts             47  73  48  77 /  30  40  10  10
Hurley                   52  75  53  78 /  30  20  10   0
Cliff                    55  81  56  82 /  20  10   0   0
Mule Creek               51  76  53  79 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  55  73  55  77 /  50  30  10   0
Animas                   57  81  58  84 /  10  10   0   0
Hachita                  57  78  56  82 /  30  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  79  56  83 /  20  10   0   0
Cloverdale               54  76  56  79 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
     7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
     Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion