Surfside Beach, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS62 KILM 301052
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclones Humberto and Imelda, offshore from the
Carolinas this morning, will begin to accelerate off to the E
to NE then overall NE-ward and well out to sea during the
remainder of the week. Rainfall to continue today across the
Carolinas with the spigot finally shutting off tonight with dry
conditions slated for the rest of the week as strong Canadian
high pressure ridges in from the north. Treacherous marine and
ocean conditions will persist through the remainder of the work
week with elevated waves pounding the coastline.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The pattern will change today as high pressure starts to ridge
down from the north towards the evening, pushing the stalled
front around our offshore tropical systems away from the area.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms moving onshore will
continue through morning until the drier air moves in this
evening, dry conditions taking hold solidly for tonight. NE
winds will gust 25-30 mph come the afternoon which, paired with
the cloud cover, should stifle warming today with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Cloudiness should start to decrease into the
overnight hours but not completely, and NE winds will stay
blowing overnight to where fog shouldn`t be an issue. Lows in
the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5H E-W positioned trof across NC and SC early Wed, will pivot
and swing off the SE States Coast by or during Wed night. This
will help accelerate the 2 tropical systems off to the NE and
away from the U.S. mainland. Upper ridging will ensue and
dominate the FA thru the end of this period. After a warm Wed
with highs around 80, expect some CAA to occur there-after.
Continued dry but slightly cooler air will filter across the
area Thu night into Fri as Canadian high pressure, centered over
the NE States, ridges south across the Carolinas. Looking at
sunny conditions Thu with maxes in the mid 70s and mostly clear
Wed and Thu nights respectively with lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expansive upper ridging at the start of this period will
amplify-some as its N-S upper ridge axis pushes east to and
along the Eastern Seaboard by the end of this period. With the
center of the sfc high dropping to and off the Mid-Atlantic
States during this period, this will result in the tightened
sfc pg also dropping across and south of the FA by the end of
this period. Dry conditions to dominate with a slight warming
trend as winds become more easterly this period. In fact, the
easterly winds not just reserved at the sfc but extend up into
the mid-levels. Thus, could see pcpn move onshore especially
across the ILM SC CWA as weak inverted sfc trofs remain
embedded within this easterly flow. Could see a return to some
80s by Sun/Mon time frame, especially inland. Any low chance
pops will be reserved for the coastal counties later in the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominant IFR through the afternoon primarily due to CIGs but
passing showers/storms could drop VSBYs briefly to MVFR/IFR.
Come the late afternoon drier air will start to build in
starting inland and then expanding towards the coast tonight.
Clouds will take longer to erode but come ~8-10PM we could start
seeing a return to VFR.
Extended Outlook...Predominant VFR with gusty NE winds through
the work week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...As high pressure starts to ridge down into
the area inland, the pressure gradient will increase between it
and Imelda to where gale force winds could impact our SE NC
waters. Otherwise, SCA conditions will hold for the NE SC
waters. Seas will increase to 4-7 ft and ~10 ft 20 nm out with a
long period SE swell at 16 seconds.
Wednesday through Saturday...Hazardous/Treacherous ocean and
marine conditions will continue through the end of the week,
due to both lingering distinctive long period swells from the 2
aforementioned tropical systems and elevated NE winds and
generated waves from strong Canadian sfc high pressure ridging
in from the north. Gales across NC waters and SCA across SC
waters at the start of this period, will become SCA thruout
during the mid to late week period. May see isolated showers
and/or tstorm vicinity of the Gulf stream that may push into the
local waters at times during the end week period and possibly
onshore before quickly dissipating. Elevated seas expected
thruout the forecast period. Initially hiest across the ILM NC
waters due to the swell combo and NE wind driven waves...then
transitioning to the SC Waters by the end of the period as the
tightened gradient pushes across and south of the ILM SC Waters
while the center of high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
Georgetown, Horry, New Hanover, and Pender counties Tuesday,
with this high rip risk likely to continue through the end of
the week. Humberto and Imelda swell will intertwine along with
the addition of large short-period wind waves resulting from
strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the
area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will
continue through the end of the work week while the 2 tropical
cyclone distinctive swell trains slowly subside. The end result
will be the production of high surf (breaking wave heights of 6+
feet) Tuesday through Thursday across E and SE facing beaches,
high risk for rip currents and strong north to south longshore
currents.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion