Tad, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS61 KRLX 151045
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Staying dry and warm initially. A bit cloudier Tues and Wed,
with low-end rain chances in the east. Dry again to end the
work week, with better rain chances over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
After any early morning valley fog burns off, it should be
another dry day across the region. Some mainly high clouds will
persist over the higher terrain, and could sneak as far
northwest as the I-79/US-119 corridor that roughly bisects the
CWA this morning. Cloud cover may continue to expand northwest
through the day, courtesy of a low pressure disturbance drifting
along the North Carolina Coast. Any shower chances are likely to
hold off until Tuesday, when the coastal low is forecast to
drift inland over eastern NC/VA. Highs for most lowland
locations should be similar to yesterday, generally 80s to near
90 degrees, but areas further southeast that see cloud cover
creep in earlier may stay a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Monday...
The aforementioned coastal low will drift inland over eastern NC
and/or southeastern VA on Tuesday, pushing thickening and
lowering cloud cover in from the southeast. How far into our
CWA the chance for showers extends will depend a great deal on
how far inland this low pressure meanders, but for now we limit
slight chance and low-end chance POPs to the higher terrain and
points east. The bulk of the guidance shows the low meandering
over the Cape Hatteras and Cape Henry region Tuesday and Tuesday
night, then starting to drift NE`ward and offshore the Mid-
Atlantic by Wednesday night as an upper-level trough passes to
the north and picks up the cut-off low.
Even for areas that don`t get any rain further to the west, the
increased cloud cover and N-NE`ly winds should help to keep high
temps on the order of 4-8 degrees cooler in the short-term
compared to today`s highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
We look to return to the previously scheduled programming of
surface high pressure and upper-level ridging for Thursday and
Friday. This means a return to sunny skies, warmer high
temperatures, and lower afternoon humidity. For both days, we
are currently forecasting lowland highs in the 80s to around 90
degrees, with temperatures peaking in the 70s in the mountains.
The upper-level ridge axis will start to shift east of us on
Saturday, and the speed at which it does so will impact how fast
clouds and showers may move in, so Saturday`s temperature
forecast is a bit more uncertain - currently going with a slower
breakdown and thus slower cloud increases and temperatures
similar to Friday, but this timing could change. The breakdown
of the ridging will be complete by Sunday, and as an upper-level
trough and surface front approach from the west, humidity, cloud
cover, and rain chances increase.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...
Fickle valley fog has been causing varying conditions at EKN,
while CRW and HTS have both been showing hints with visibility
just under 10SM. CRW could still see a `sunrise surprise` of
fog at the terminal as it lifts out of the Elk River Valley, but
any fog around the area should burn off by 13z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and gentle E-NE`ly breezes are expected today.
Breezes shift E-SE`ly tonight. Could be a bit of fog again
tonight, but just did VCFG for EKN and CRW for now, given
expected cloud cover. Any showers that encroach on the CWA
towards the end of the TAF period should keep clear of the
terminals until after 12z Tues.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with
valley fog may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions not expected at this time.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion