Taos Pueblo New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS65 KABQ 140617
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1217 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur through tonight. The flash flood risk will
  be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond
  crosses the state, isolated flash flooding remains a concern,
  especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated flows in
  main stem rivers across northwest New Mexico will continue.
- There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of central
  NM today and over much of north central NM on Wednesday.
- There is a moderate chance (40-60%) for freezing temperatures
  across some of northern, western and portions of central New
  Mexico Friday and Saturday mornings. This would be the first
  freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San
  Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The record PWAT atmosphere over the region will trend down through
Wednesday, but still be above normal as southerly winds in the lower
boundary layer keep a stream of subtropical moisture flowing into
the area. At the same time, a 545dam 500mb low is turning inland
over central CA and will progress east into NV/UT on Wednesday. This
pattern will provide sufficient forcing to take advantage of the
above normal moisture, yielding rounds of showers and storms both
Tue/Wed. The highest PoPs will be along the central mountain
chain today and then over the northern mountains Wednesday, where
orographic forcing will play a role. The SPC has included much of
central NM, including the Albuquerque Metro, in a marginal risk
for severe storms today and this fits well with the shear and
instability combination being offered up by the 00Z NAM. The same
goes for Wednesday, but the SPC outlook focuses more over the
northern mountains and surrounding highlands in the marginal risk
area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The upper low over UT is forecast to move east-northeast toward the
central/northern Rockies Wednesday night and will keep sufficient
forcing over north central NM for a few showers and storms to
persist overnight. PWATs will accelerate the downtrend Thursday as
dry air aloft rounds the base of the upper low and spreads east
across the southern Rockies and NM. Progressively drier air will
overtake the region Thursday night into Friday, which will show up
as larger diurnal temperature ranges and notably colder low
temperatures from Friday morning through the weekend. There is a
moderate chance (40-60%) that a number of locales will see the
first freeze of the season Friday morning or Saturday morning, but
that won`t include the Albuquerque Metro and will be limited to a
handful of lower elevation locales north of I-40. An upper level
ridge will move east across the Rockies and NM this weekend,
bringing warmer daytime temperatures and progressively larger
diurnal temperature ranges. The next upper level trough/low will
approach from the west coast early next week, bringing the
potential for windy conditions both ahead of and behind a Pacific
cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A mixed bag of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across northern and
central NM, but deterioration is forecast through Tuesday morning as
areas of IFR conditions materialize. TAF sites with higher
probabilities for IFR condition are KLVS and KAEG. Improvement
Tuesday morning will be slow, but all sites will be back to VFR
between 16-18Z. Another round of sct/num showers and storms is
forecast Tuesday afternoon/evening and will be associated with MVFR
impacts. KLVS, KSAF, KTCC and KABQ are the terminals with the
highest thunderstorm probabilities Tuesday afternoon/evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the
next seven days. A moisture loaded atmosphere remains in place
over the area, with wet antecedent conditions, high humidity and
good chances for wetting showers and storms through Wednesday. A
notable drying trend will begin Thursday and continue through the
weekend, with larger diurnal temperature ranges and lower minimum
humidity. Vent rates will take a dive and be poor to fair across
the area this weekend as an upper level ridge moves east across
the Rockies and NM. Winds will pick back up and vent rates will
improve early next week as a potent upper level trough/low
approaches from the west coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  52  71  43 /  20  20  20  10
Dulce...........................  66  44  66  40 /  40  40  60  60
Cuba............................  66  49  66  41 /  30  40  50  40
Gallup..........................  70  43  69  34 /  10   0   5   5
El Morro........................  68  46  69  38 /  10  10  10   0
Grants..........................  71  48  73  39 /  20  20  20  10
Quemado.........................  69  47  71  38 /  10   5  10   0
Magdalena.......................  70  54  71  46 /  20  30  10  10
Datil...........................  68  48  71  40 /  20  20  10  10
Reserve.........................  69  47  71  39 /  20  10  10   0
Glenwood........................  73  50  74  43 /  20  10  10   0
Chama...........................  61  42  60  38 /  50  40  60  60
Los Alamos......................  65  52  65  49 /  50  60  60  60
Pecos...........................  63  49  63  46 /  80  70  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  64  48  64  46 /  50  40  40  50
Red River.......................  60  42  60  39 /  50  40  40  50
Angel Fire......................  63  43  63  39 /  50  50  40  50
Taos............................  67  48  67  46 /  50  50  40  50
Mora............................  62  46  62  44 /  80  70  50  50
Espanola........................  71  52  72  46 /  50  60  50  60
Santa Fe........................  68  54  68  49 /  60  60  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  71  52  72  47 /  60  60  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  57  74  51 /  50  60  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  58  76  52 /  40  50  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  76  53  77  48 /  40  50  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  74  57  76  53 /  40  50  20  30
Belen...........................  76  58  78  52 /  30  40  10  20
Bernalillo......................  75  55  76  51 /  50  60  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  76  54  77  49 /  40  50  20  20
Corrales........................  75  56  76  51 /  40  50  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  76  57  77  51 /  30  50  10  20
Placitas........................  73  54  74  49 /  50  60  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  74  56  75  52 /  40  50  30  40
Socorro.........................  76  59  78  53 /  30  50  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  51  71  47 /  50  60  40  40
Tijeras.........................  70  54  72  50 /  50  60  40  40
Edgewood........................  69  51  71  48 /  60  60  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  50  72  47 /  70  60  40  30
Clines Corners..................  66  49  66  47 /  70  70  40  40
Mountainair.....................  69  51  71  49 /  60  60  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  69  50  72  49 /  60  60  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  73  55  75  54 /  70  50  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  67  48  70  48 /  70  40  20  10
Capulin.........................  63  49  66  48 /  50  40  20  20
Raton...........................  66  51  68  49 /  50  40  20  30
Springer........................  67  52  69  50 /  50  50  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  62  49  62  48 /  80  70  40  50
Clayton.........................  69  54  75  53 /  60  20  20  10
Roy.............................  65  51  67  51 /  70  50  20  20
Conchas.........................  73  55  74  55 /  70  50  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  70  53  70  53 /  60  40  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  77  55  77  55 /  60  20  20  20
Clovis..........................  77  55  77  54 /  40   5  10  10
Portales........................  78  54  79  55 /  40   5  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  76  55  75  55 /  50  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  80  59  79  58 /  30  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  73  53  73  53 /  50  20  10  10
Elk.............................  72  50  73  51 /  50  20  10  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion