Tarawa, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

767
FXUS62 KMHX 070839
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
439 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today bringing moderate
to heavy rain and thunderstorm chances to the area, heaviest
rain is expected to be east of hwy 17. High pressure will build
in from the north behind the front. A shortwave moves along a
stalled front offshore mid- week bringing heavy rain chances
along the coast. High pressure builds in again for the end of
the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...Broad upper troughing remains in place
over southeastern Canada with the axis of a notable shortwave
trough pivoting eastward across the Great Lakes region and Ohio
River Valley. Surface cold front remains stretched northeast-
southwest across central NC and will slowly push into the region
during the pre-dawn hours reaching the coast this morning.
Earlier convection across central NC has since waned with loss
of instability but continue to see abundant storms offshore near
the Gulf Stream. However, expect showers and thunderstorms to
redevelop across this afternoon as forcing improves with the
right entrance region of the upper jet passing over the region.
Highest chances will be east of highway 17 where instability
and moisture will be greatest and where sfc convergence along
the front and sea breeze boundaries will reside. Some storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall with PW values peaking near
2" today and WPC has the eastern half of the FA in a marginal
excessive rainfall risk. Blend of models showing an area of QPF
around 1-2" east of highway 17 and some HiRes guidance
forecasting locally higher amounts. Northerly flow and clouds
will bring cooler temps today with highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s along north to mid 80s southern coastal sections.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...Showers and storms weaken this evening
with waning instability and gradually off the coast as the front
pushes farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the
north. A drier airmass will filter into the area with dew point
temps dropping to the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s
along the coast by late tonight. Lows tonight expected in the
low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...
Key Messages
- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week
- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
   coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
Front stalls along the gulf stream to start the work week keeping
much of the precip offshore. Errant showers are possible
through early next week along the coast, originating from this
stalled front/coastal trough offshore as weak shortwaves move
through along it. NE flow behind the front as high pressure
builds in will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions
inland through much of next week. Mid- week, a slightly stronger
shortwave looks to move through along the coastal trough. This
will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast and
perhaps even areas inland. WPC has our coast in a marginal ERO
for Tuesday 12Z to Wednesday 12Z. After this, high pressure
builds in again as front remains stalled offshore. Deterministic
guidance (CMC, GFS) are trying to show a weak low forming along
this stalled front off the FL/GA/SC coast next weekend as a
deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to
tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence
on the timing, track, and intensity of the low, if it even gets
resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Pred VFR at the TAF sites early this
morning but have seen patchy fog develop as several coastal
stations, including briefly at OAJ. Guidance indicates the best
chance for fog will continue to be along the coast but could see
brief periods of fog or stratus along inland rtes as well as a
cold front slowly pushes into the are reaching the coast this
morning. A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs expected across rtes through
much of the day with showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Best chances will be east of highway 17 near the
front and sea breeze interaction and where best instability and
moisture will reside. High pressure builds in from the north
overnight will improving conditions expected across northwestern
rtes but sub-VFR conditions expected to persist across much of
the rest of the FA.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may
result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this
coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops in
cig and vis pick up, highest along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...A cold front will slowly push across the
waters today and push offshore tonight with high pressure
building in from the north. Light and variable winds early this
morning become Nly around 15-20 kt behind the front this
afternoon and evening. Gradients tighten further overnight with
SCA conditions developing across most waters with N to NE winds
around 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
around 2-3 ft this morning will build late today and tonight to
around 4-6 ft by early Monday.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
Moderate NNE flow post frontal flow increases to 20-25 kt
(gusting to at or above 30 kts) Mon and Tue. Seas will build to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday. Gale Watches were considered for coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound, but at this point
gusts of 34+ knots are not expected to be frequent enough.
Trends will have to be monitored, as even a 3-5kt uptick in fcst
winds will bring us to gale watch/warning criteria. Currently
HREF has a 20-40% chance of seeing gale force gusts late Monday
into Tuesday along and in proximity of the Gulf Stream.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion