Teachey, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS62 KMHX 070011
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
811 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area late tonight into
Sunday bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorm chances
to the area. Heaviest rain is expected to be east of hwy 17.
High pressure will build in late this weekend into next week
while a stalled front remains just offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 800 PM Sat...Broad upper troughing remains in place over
southeastern Canada with the axis of a notable shortwave trough pivoting
eastward across the Great Lakes region as of Saturday evening.
Surface cold front currently stretched northeast-southwest
across central NC is slowly making its way eastward and is
forecast to reach the coast by early Sunday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms and their attendant outflow boundary
have pushed off of this front and currently like just west of
the westernmost portions of the forecast area. Guidance
continues to suggest that these storms will wane over the next
hour or two with the loss of diurnal heating, but given recent
radar trends, expectation is for at least a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms to make it into ENC. Thus, have
included slight chance to chance PoPs for the far
western/northwestern portions of the forecast area for the next
couple of hours. Any lingering showers/thunderstorms are
expected to dissipate by midnight. Chance for a few additional
showers to move onshore across portions of the OBX overnight
tonight, especially Hatteras. With increasing low level
moisture, guidance is then suggesting patchy fog development
late tonight. High and mid level clouds will be gradually
increasing tonight after midnight curtailing radiational
cooling, which may limit fog potential. Recent guidance has
seemingly backed off of the fog threat and is instead suggesting
low stratus will build in during the overnight hours. Lows
tonight expected around 70 inland and low to mid 70s along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Aforementioned cold front eventually slows
and then stalls along the coast Sunday afternoon and evening.
Broad upper troughing remains overhead, though a mid level
shortwave will be tracking across ENC late Sun morning into Sun
afternoon while the entrance region of an upper level jet sets
up around the area. As the front stalls, expect it to interact
with the incoming seabreeze Sun afternoon increasing low level
convergence across ENC. With previous days S`rly flow bringing
ample moisture northward and favorable lower level and upper
level dynamics finally in place, expect increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances through the day on Sunday especially along
and east of Hwy 17. Biggest challenge for the period will be
where rain falls as latest hi-res guidance suggests most
persistent shower and thunderstorm activity may occur in a
narrow swath along and just east of Hwy 17. With moisture
pooling out ahead and along the stalling front PWATs will jump
to 2+ inches across much of ENC on Sun afternoon allowing for at
least a low end threat for heavy rainfall. Exact location of
this swath (whether further inland or offshore) is dependent on
where the front stalls Sun and how it interacts with the
afternoon sea breeze. While storms should be progressive, given
the slow moving nature of the front and expected storm motion,
training storms are likely. With much of the Higher Res guidance
coming in today showing widespread 1-2" with locally higher
amounts possible, would not be shocked to see some very
localized flash flooding especially across our more vulnerable
urban areas and trends will continue to be monitored. Given
expected ample cloud cover and rain potential expect temps to
only reach the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow with hottest temps
likely along the Crystal Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages
- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week
- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
   coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
Sunday night into Saturday:
Front finally moves offshore late Sunday, stalling along the
gulf stream keeping much of the additional precip offshore as
well. Errant showers are possible through early next week along
the coast, originating from this stalled front/coastal trough
offshore. NE flow behind the front as high pressure builds in
will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions inland
through much of next week. Mid-week, a wave looks to move
through along the coastal trough. This will bring the best
chances of showers reaching the coast and perhaps even areas
inland.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00Z Monday/...
As of 800 PM Sat...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals and should persist for at least another few hours
outside of PGV, where ongoing showers and thunderstorms
currently entering the far western portions of the forecast
area may bring temporary sub-VFR conditions over through ~04Z.
Expectation is for these showers/thunderstorms to continue to
diminish over the next couple of hours. ENC is then expected to
remain dry until Sunday afternoon, except for the potential for
an isolated shower or two to push onshore across the Outer
Banks, especially Hatteras, during the overnight hours. Some
guidance is still suggesting patchy fog development overnight
tonight at all terminals, with the best chances at OAJ. However,
incoming high and mid-level cloud cover may temper the threat of
fog, and recent guidance has begun to back off of fog potential
slightly. Most likely scenario now seems to be for low stratus
to form across much of the coastal Plain and southern forecast
area after ~06Z tonight. Most recent guidance is in decent
agreement that this will bring IFR ceilings to terminals later
tonight. Have left MVFR VIS in the TAFS for now while
introducing IFR ceilings, with trends suggesting that low
stratus will be the greater threat overnight. Aforementioned
mid/high cloud cover could still alter potential, so this will
continue to be monitored for the 06Z cycle. Any fog that does
form is expected to mix out quickly Sunday morning as ceilings
lift. Expect MVFR ceilings to persist into the day on Sunday,
with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing Sunday
afternoon.
LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop along
and behind a stalled front Sunday, potentially lingering into
early next week. Scattered showers and storms expected,
especially for OAJ and EWN (and areas east) Sunday afternoon and
eve. Rain chances increase again, especially along the coast,
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...No significant changes to the marine forecast
as benign winds and seas will continue across our area waters
for the most part through early Sun morning before conditions
begin to quickly deteriorate. A cold front will slowly push
into the area late tonight. Southerly winds at 5-15 kts are
noted across all waters with 1-3 ft seas noted across our
coastal waters this afternoon. As the front nears the area winds
should gradually veer to a SW`rly direction tonight at 5-10
kts. We will continue to remain precip free for the most part
across our waters through tonight as well though cant rule out a
stray shower or two. As we get into SUnday front should slowly
push across our waters allowing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds to shift
to a NE`rly direction behind the front late Sun morning into SUn
afternoon and increase to 10-20 kts. As the winds shift and
increase seas across our coastal waters should also increase
closer to 2-4 ft as well. Precip chances also increase Sun
afternoon and evening with an isolated chance at a few
thunderstorms as well.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
The front will move through the waters Saturday night and early
Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday
10-15 kt, increasing to 20-25 kt (gusting to near 30kts) Mon
and Tue. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft this weekend, building to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RJ/ZC
MARINE...RCF/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion