Tennessee Colony Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS64 KFWD 121054
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An elevated grass fire threat will be present for areas near and
  west of I-35 today.
- Warm and rain-free weather will continue through much of this
  week with a low chance for storms arriving Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/
/Through Tonight Night/
Above normal temperatures will persist as strong upper-level
ridging remains firmly in place over the region. Afternoon highs
will once again climb into the lower to mid 90s which is 8-15
degrees above normal for mid-October.
A modest surface pressure gradient will continue to tighten
across North and Central Texas today, producing breezy southerly
winds between 10-15 mph through the evening hours. A few gusts up
to 25 mph cannot be ruled out. These winds, combined with dry
fuels and low afternoon humidity, will result in an elevated fire
weather concern -- particularly west of I-35 where fine fuels
remain most receptive. Winds will gradually diminish overnight
with the loss of daytime heating, and the fire potential will
subside accordingly.
Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear with mild overnight
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/
/Monday Onward/
A broad area of high pressure aloft will dominate the region
through much of the upcoming work week, maintaining a dry and warm
pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows generally in the 60s.
Winds will be lighter Monday and Tuesday as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes, resulting in a reduction in fire weather
concerns. The ridge will begin to weaken late in the week as a
trough develops across the western US, signaling an incoming
weather pattern change.
By Saturday, the upper trough is expected to advance into the
Southern Plains. Southerly flow ahead of this system will bring
increasing moisture into North and Central Texas, setting the
stage for a potential cold front late in the weekend. Current
guidance suggests the front may move through the area sometime
Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms. The
front`s timing, and attendant rain chances, remains uncertain
this far out. Having said that, there is an increasing chance that
a cooldown will occur with a return to near-normal temperatures in
roughly 8 days.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z/
VFR conditions will continue through today with on and off high
clouds moving from west to east later this morning. Winds will be
on the rise, becoming gusty this afternoon. Sustained winds
between 10-12 kts are expected with gusts closer to 22 kts. Winds
will remain out of the south, posing no major concerns to area
airports.
Hernandez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  69  89  67  89 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                89  64  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               89  63  88  61  87 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              90  65  89  61  88 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            91  65  89  62  89 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              91  69  90  68  90 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             90  63  89  61  89 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           91  65  90  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              90  61  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  64  90  62  90 /   5   5   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion