Tera North, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

764
FXUS63 KIND 020316
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1116 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons through early next week
- Drought is expected to persist and worsen across central Indiana
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A broad high pressure ridge remains firmly in control across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with dry weather continuing. 01Z
temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The ongoing forecast is in excellent shape with just subtle
adjustments to account for current obs. Cirrus will drift across the
region overnight with mainly light northeasterly flow. There remains
a pocket of much drier air with dewpoints in the 30s over northeast
counties that has advected west from Ohio over the last several
hours. This will drift west-southwest over the next few hours slowly
modifying as it does so. Any risk for localized fog overnight was
low and the presence of this drier pocket largely removes any small
concern for visibility restrictions.
Overnight lows will range from near 50 in northeast counties to the
upper 50s in the lower Wabash Valley. Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The early Autumn heat wave continues across the region as high
pressure and ridging dominate the weather pattern. There is a low
fire weather threat each afternoon as minimum relative humidity
values plummet into the 15-25% range.
This afternoon and tonight...
Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies over Indiana and much of
the Great Lakes region as high pressure stretches from Central
Canada down into the Southern Plains. Local soundings indicate low
level mixing taking place this afternoon, bringing drier air down to
the surface once again. Mixing heights are a little lower today and
therefore humidity values are not plummeting as much as what was
observed Tuesday afternoon. Short term guidance has done very well
today depicting an area of significantly drier air in NW Ohio, where
observed dew points have dropped into the 30s. Expect this drier air
to advect eastward into Indiana within the 21z-06z timeframe, mainly
along and north of I-70. Occasional wind gusts of 15-20 mph may
occur as well during this timeframe. A low fire weather threat
continues today and through the week due to such dry conditions.
Expect rapidly rising humidity and plummeting temperatures after
sunset as radiational cooling takes place. Overnight lows once again
fall into the low to mid 50s...warmer in urban areas.
Tomorrow...
Similar set up for tomorrow; however high pressure now becomes
centered over the Mid Atlantic, placing Indiana within southeasterly
flow at the surface. Guidance also shows a very weak upper level
trough approaching from the west. This trough is largely moisture
starved and should only bring higher clouds aloft. Little to no
impacts expected at the surface as the hot and dry airmass remains
in place. Expect highs once again in the low to mid 80s. Brought
afternoon dew points and RH down to the NBM10th percentile to
account for afternoon mixing bringing drier air down to the surface
as observed each afternoon this week. Expect afternoon RH values to
approach critical fire weather thresholds; however winds at or below
10 kts with only sporadic gusts to 15 kts should keep the fire
threat relatively low... but still non zero.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High confidence in the long term forecast as a hot and dry weather
pattern continues for the region for the first week of October.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will be the dominant weather
influences for Indiana`s weather through Tuesday before the pattern
begins to change.
Little change in the day to day weather through next Monday as high
pressure remains in place across the Mid Atlantic. Ample sunshine
returns Friday into the weekend with highs reaching at least into
the mid 80s..and possibly upper 80s. Expect large diurnal
temperature ranges in this type of pattern with relief from the heat
each night as lows drop into the mid 50s to low 60s. Watching Sunday
for the potential for high temperatures to reach
The main concern each day into the weekend is low afternoon RH
values dropping into the 15-30 percent range and the worsening
drought conditions. Model guidance struggles with drier air mixing
down to the surface and typically keeps dew points and RH too high
in patterns like this. Afternoon RH and Dew Points will likely be
closer to the NBM 5-10th percentile or lower during peak heating of
the day. Watching the possibility for an increased fire weather risk
this week due to such dry and hot conditions. Winds remain under any
critical thresholds, but the prolonged stretch of heat and dry
weather may still lead to an elevated fire weather risk.
High confidence exists in a weather pattern supportive of well above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall through at least
October 7th. Guidance struggles to break down these strong blocking
patterns in the long term, typically bringing in chances for rain
and storm systems too fast. Confidence is increasing regarding a
shift toward a more active weather pattern going into the second
week of October. There has been some consistency among long range
models and ensembles showing the blocking high pressure breaking
down with numerous storm systems bringing rain chances to the state.
While confidence is low in the exact evolution of the pattern
change, confidence is increasing in a frontal boundary bringing rain
on Tuesday October 7th. We`ll be watching this closely and updating
the forecast as needed.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Impacts:
- None; VFR expected.
Discussion:
VFR Conditions will continue as strong surface high pressure and
ongoing subsidence continues across the area through the forecast
period. Time heights and forecast soundings remain dry, some passing
cirrus will be possible through the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion