Terra Nova High School California Weather Forecast Discussion

159
FXUS66 KMTR 132347
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
447 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Widespread rainfall and thunderstorm chances through this evening
- Post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow,
   tapering off by the afternoon
- Warming and drying trend Wednesday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 122 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)
Rain showers have returned to the North Bay and are moving inland
across the San Francisco Bay Area. Rain showers will spread
southward across the Central Coast with increasing chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Overall, thunderstorm
chances remain about 25% across much of the region as the atmosphere
becomes more unstable in wake of the frontal passage. CAPE values
look to range between 250-500 J/kg and lapse rates around 7 C/km
this afternoon and evening before lowering to below 250 J/kg. Ahead
of the cold front, strong and gusty winds are expected from the
southwest with gusts up to 35-45 mph in the higher terrain, gaps and
passes around the Bay Area and 40-50 mph in the higher terrain of
the Central Coast.
Post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
into the night, but the thunderstorm threat drops to around 10% or
less. However, a much colder air mass will filter into the region as
the cold core mid/upper low moves inland over the Central Coast
and/or Bay Area. However, the lack of complete clearing of clouds
may limit low temperatures Tuesday morning. Generally expecting mid
to upper 40`s inland away from the coast to lower 50`s around the
San Francisco Bayshore and along the coast. Upper 30`s will be
possible in the highest peaks across the region, especially the
Central Coast.
Rain showers may linger into Tuesday morning before tapering off by
the afternoon and especially so by the evening. Given the cold air
mass in place, afternoon temperatures will struggle to warm into the
mid 60`s. Generally speaking, temperatures look to peak in the upper
50`s to lower 60`s tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 122 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
The mid/upper level low will shift east by a building shortwave
ridge nosing in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a
gradual warming and drying trend from Wednesday through Saturday.
There has been a slight delay in the expected return of unsettled
conditions to next Monday, however cooling is still anticipated on
Sunday as a potential frontal boundary approaches. The 6-10 Day
Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has temperatures leaning
below normal and precipitation leaning above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A strong band of showers is pushing through the Bay area, bringing
heavy rain and erratic, gusty winds. After this line moves through
conditions will quickly improve with only scattered showers
expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...A very organized line of showers just moved
through with steady rain expected for the next couple hours. The
threat of thunderstorms has likely ended, however the showers are
still bringing erratic wind and quickly changing flight
conditions.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The Monterey Bay terminals still have
several hours of impacts as a second band of organized showers
and thunderstorms is forming over the coastal waters. Conditions
should improve by 0400Z with scattered showers through the rest
of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A deepening low pressure system with a surface cold front will
move southward across the coastal waters producing strengthening
winds as high as gales around frontal passage through this
evening. There is also the potential for thunderstorms which would
bring localized gales, steep wind waves, reduced visibility and a
slight chance for waterspouts associated with the strongest cells.
Showers will persist through Tuesday morning, but will become
more isolated while the winds decrease overall. Rough seas to 10
feet will persist into Wednesday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...RGass
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion