Terry Peak, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS63 KUNR 262012
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
212 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through
  much of next week.
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper air models show ridge just to the east of the FA this
afternoon, and a bit flattened out as upper wave treks across
Saskatchewan. Surface analysis shows the frontal boundary running
from north central SD down through southwestern SD, having moved
through 2/3rds of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures
currently sit in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Winds behind the
front are out of the northwest with gusts 35 to 45 mph and breezy
south to southwesterly winds for those areas still ahead of the
front.
Post frontal winds will taper off this evening into the overnight
hours. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler, though
still above normal with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper
ridge builds back over the northern plains over the weekend
though, resulting in warming temperatures and continuing dry
conditions. Highs on Sunday my reach near record for this time of
year, with some areas potentially hitting low 90s. Closer to
middle of next week we start to see a pattern change, as upper
ridge shifts eastward and upper trough digs into the western
CONUS, setting up southwestern flow aloft. Models do show a weak
wave in the Tues/Weds timeframe. Limited moisture though will
minimize any precipitation chances. can expect dry conditions to
continue. Towards the end of next week though multiple waves move
through as the upper trough shifts eastward, leading towards
potentially cooler temperatures (near normal) and increasing
precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1117 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. A dry cool front is
currently moving through the area. Northwest winds will gust to
25-35kts behind the front. Winds will quickly subside this
evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 156 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A dry cool front has moved through the forecast area today,
bringing gusty northwesterly winds (15-25g30-40mph) behind it.
Minimum relative humidities will drop into the upper teens to
upper 20s for most places leading to elevated fire weather
conditions.
Elevated fire danger will continue over the weekend into next
week as sustained dry and unseasonably warm weather continues.
Gusty southerly winds will develop in the afternoon Saturday
through Monday. MinRH in the low to mid 20s will not be uncommon
through early next week.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Dye

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion