Tetlin, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

746
FXAK69 PAFG 231221
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
421 AM AKDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
More cool conditions for the region Tuesday with showery
conditions in the Eastern Interior. Mostly rain in the valleys
with some light snow accumulations possible at higher elevations.
Warmer Wednesday before temperatures cool again with more wet
weather approaching the state Thursday and Friday from the west.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow accumulations through Tuesday around a T-3" will
  remain confined to the higher elevations and mountain passes,
  with warmer ground temperatures in the valleys limiting any
  accumulation.
- Cooler temperatures through Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s
  for most valley locations, turning warmer again Wednesday back
  into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
- Lows reach near to below freezing Tuesday morning and overnight
  into Wednesday, supporting more widespread frost/freeze
  conditions, including a possible first freeze in the city of
  Fairbanks.
- Southerly winds increase through Alaska Range Passes
  Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning with gusts peaking
  around 45 mph early Wednesday morning.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures remain cool throughout the week with highs in the
  low to mid 40s.
- Generally dry conditions continue through the first half of the
  week.
- Rain chances steadily increase Thursday and Friday as a system
  moves from Siberia through Southwestern Alaska supporting
  possible snow at higher elevations.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain/mostly snow showers through the
  Tuesday, with snow accumulations around a T-3". Highest totals
  expected along the Central/Eastern Brooks Range, including
  Atigun Pass.
- Isolated snow showers continue through the rest of the week
  along the Western Arctic Coast and far Western Brooks Range
- Highs in the mid to upper 30s along the Arctic Coast, 20s to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
As of Monday night, a 520 decameter upper level low north of
Utqiagvik near 76N continues to dominate weather across Northern
Alaska. A 529 decameter shortwave over the Central Interior is
pushing cooler conditions east Tuesday and supporting persistent
light precipitation across the Eastern Interior. A clearer area
behind the shortwave will slowly move east through Tuesday
allowing some drying for parts of the Interior before Tuesday
night. Interior valleys under clear skies Tuesday night are very
likely to see low temperatures fall below freezing, but there will
still be enough clouds to keep this fairly spotty. A 525 decameter
low in the Southern Bering Sea moves east towards the Gulf of
Alaska through Wednesday. After the shortwave passes Tuesday some
slight ridging attempts to build into the Eastern Interior
Wednesday raising temperatures slightly. The low moving into the
Gulf of Alaska will push the ridging back east into Canada
Thursday cooling temperatures again.
Thursday into Friday another low moves southeast out of Siberia
into the Northern Bering Sea and through Southwestern Alaska.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement on this system
and its track through the YK Delta and Southwestern Alaska seems
very likely at this point. This is still some model disagreement
on the strength of this feature with an ensemble range of 985mb to
1000mb as the feature reaches the Northern Bering Sea. This system
is not expected to bring any notable coastal impacts although
there may be slightly higher tides. Instead this system is
expected to bring another round of light rain to the West Coast
and possibly extend into the Central Interior with snow possible
in the hills and mountains.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period Thursday night, a low
in the Northern Bering Sea brings another round of rain to the
West Coast. This low moves southeast through Southwestern Alaska
through Friday and could extend a band of additional rain/snow
through the Interior. Confidence is low on the total extent of
precipitation, but trends are increasing the chances of additional
rain across the majority of the Interior Friday and Saturday.
Higher pressure builds in the Bering Saturday behind that low.
Sunday into Monday another low enters into the Southern Bering
Sea. Model confidence on a more southerly solution to this low has
increased and the most likely outcome now seems to be that this
low moves east through the Southern Bering Sea towards the Gulf of
Alaska which would keep it from being able hazard Northern Alaska.
There are however still a couple of ensemble members clinging to a
stronger, more northerly track for this low which could bring some
minor coastal impacts like high surf to the West Coast. This
solution has become less and less likely each day, allowing
confidence to increase in calm weather continuing early next
week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&
$$
Stokes

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion