Texline, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS64 KAMA 231849
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mostly showers, and a few thunderstorms, are likely this evening
in the northwest combined Panhandles. A slight chance of showers
will persist overnight for the rest of the area.
Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest
of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Surface winds are projected to stay breezy and northerly for the
next 48 hours. A secondary wave of cold air will move in later
tonight and reinforce cooler temperatures tomorrow. Before the
front arrives, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to
move eastward off the high terrain. Rain can be expected for
northwest combined Panhandles this evening and tonight, and
there`s a slight chance showers could continue further south as
the front squeezes out the moisture ahead of it.
Tomorrow, clouds may linger around a bit longer into the
afternoon. Temperatures should range in the 70`s for highs across
the CWA. PoPs will be absent for tomorrow as stable air settles
over the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Weak upper level ridging begins over the central CONUS after the
eastward passing of the upper trough. Long range models seem to
continue in disagreement on the upper level pattern for next week.
We will have to see how the 12Z runs transpire later on today; but
at the time of this writing, the 06Z and 00Z global models are
interested in reintroducing another upper level trough to the High
Plains next week. However, the strength of this system appears weak
given the larger spread of 500 mb heights models are showing.
There`s also a chance the ridge holds in place next week as well, so
we will have to be patient with guidance to see when they will hone
in on the most likely solution.
In the meantime, PoPs remain low or near zero in the extended given
the presents of the upper ridge. Highs are expected to increase back
into the upper 80`s and 90`s Thursday and Friday, but Saturday and
onward is still somewhat ambiguous. The NBM seems keen on keeping
highs for late September near or slightly above average for this
time of year, so we will leave it as such until new guidance suggest
otherwise.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
MVFR conditions at AMA are now clear and VFR prevails at all
sites. Later tonight, showers are expected to move into DHT and
GUY. PROB30 groups have been kept, but the times have been
adjusted slightly for the tonight period. Breezy winds are
generally expected to continue at all sites for next next 24 hours
due another cold front expected to move in later tonight. Wind
speeds may calm down in the late afternoon to evening hours today,
but should ramp backup up once the cold front surges in.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion