Thayer, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

997
FXUS63 KICT 131737
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through today, seasonably
  warm Sunday through Tuesday, modest cool down Wednesday
  through at least next weekend.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from the west late
  tonight and persist through Sunday evening, especially
  along/west of the Flint Hills. Severe weather unlikely.
- Additional chances for off-and-on showers/thunderstorms
  Tuesday or Tuesday night through week`s end. Severe weather
  chances appear low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
PRECIPITATION:
LATE TONIGHT--SUNDAY EVENING...A deep western CONUS upper trough
ejecting onto Mid-America and associated increasing precipitable
waters and modest instability will serve as a focus for increasing
scattered showers/thunderstorms from the west. Thinking chances will
be highest generally along/west of the Flint Hills. A limited
combination of buoyancy/shear should prevent severe storms, with the
strongest activity capable of small hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall, especially Sunday afternoon-evening.
TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...A second slow-moving and wobbly deep upper
trough in concert with a frontal zone approaching from the north
will be the focus for additional off-and-on showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday through Thursday or Thursday night. Thinking chances will be
greatest generally Tuesday night through early Thursday, when large
scale synoptic forcing is greatest. Once again, limited
instability/shear should prevent severe storms, although the
strongest activity will be capable of small hail, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall.
TEMPERATURES:
A relatively thick atmosphere and persistent southerly flow ahead of
an approaching deep upper trough will support another day of above
average temperatures in the upper 80s through mid 90s today. Sunday
will see a slight cool down, especially west of the Flint Hills
where precipitation/clouds will be most prevalent. Seasonably warm
readings continue Monday and Tuesday, with a modest cool down
Wednesday through at least next weekend as cooler Canadian high
pressure attempts to build in from the north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 06Z, then chances for
showers and storms to increase Sunday morning.
Early this afternoon, southerly to southwesterly winds were
generally around 5 to 10 knots with portions of central Kansas
seeing wind gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Winds may increase
slightly later this afternoon with the potential for wind gusts
around 25 to 30 knots across central Kansas for a brief period
of time. Winds should decrease back to around 5 to 10 knots
after 00Z.
Late tonight into early Sunday morning, showers and storms will
move eastward off of the High Plains and into portions of
central and south-central Kansas. Some of this activity could
bring small hail and gusty winds, but the intensity of these
storms should be on the decrease as they move eastward Sunday
morning. Still, vis and cig cats may be impacted at any site
that see a stronger storm Sunday morning.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion