Thoreau, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

143
FXUS65 KABQ 231204 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Another crop of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
  southern high terrain and northeast New Mexico this afternoon.
  Some of this activity may produce strong outflow winds and brief
  heavy rain. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding in the Ruidoso area late today and tonight.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico today then to all of eastern New Mexico on
  Wednesday. North wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible over
  eastern New Mexico tonight. Canyon winds may gust to between 25
  and 35 mph on the east side of Albuquerque late Tuesday night.
- Forecast confidence remains moderate that a Pacific system will
  approach from the west at the end of the work week, bringing
  improved chances for showers and storms to western New Mexico
  Thursday then more of the region Friday through the weekend.
  This scenario would lead to an increasing risk for burn scar
  flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A minor forecast update was made to align higher pops around the
Ruidoso area with the Flash Flood Watch later today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The 00Z PWAT of 0.99" at KABQ was near the average max typical
for late September. A much drier mid and upper level airmass will
move south into the northwest half of NM this morning in the wake
of a cold front overnight. Areas south and east of ABQ will stay
in the deeper moisture with PWATs remaining near 1" today. A
70-80kt zonal speed max remains in place over northern NM in the
base of a 576dm H5 low spinning over western CO. Two defined areas
of showers and storms will develop this afternoon. One batch will
form over the Gila region below the right entrance region of the
upper level jet and the remnant location of the Pacific cold
front. Hi-res models show showers and storms forming in west to
east linear segments after 2pm then moving east across Socorro and
Lincoln counties thru around midnight. The 00Z HREF and RRFS have
expected QPF amounts in the 0.25" to 0.50" range for the Ruidoso
area while 90th percentile amounts have bullseyes near 1" in the
vicinity of the South Fork burn scar. Given the potential for
multiple rounds of training storms to impact that area, a Flash
Flood Watch will be issued for later today. The second batch of
storms is expected to form over northeast NM beneath the left exit
region of the upper level jet and the next backdoor cold front
approaching from the northeast. More strong winds are possible
with any of these cells across the region today given stronger
winds aloft and unidirectional shear values >50KT.
The backdoor cold front surging into northeast NM tonight will be
the strongest since late spring (although model trends are a tad
weaker than previously shown). North winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts near 35 mph are expected to surge south down the plains
from Clayton to Tucumcari, Clovis, and Roswell tonight. The 00Z
HREF wind gust probabilities >35 mph are in the 40-60% range in
the wake of the front so overall wind is not too much of a concern
outside crosswinds on I-40. The main impact of the front will be
to drag much cooler air into the region with widespread low clouds
for Wednesday morning. Low clouds will be slow to erode over
eastern NM with a moist and stable low level airmass in place
behind the front. Gap winds in the RGV are also expected behind
the front late tonight into Wednesday morning with gusts most
likely in the 25 to 35 mph range from the east side of ABQ south
toward Carrizozo. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon will be lower
areawide with drier mid and upper level air spreading southeast
into NM over a more stable boundary layer. Max temps will be
roughly 5-10F below normal across central and eastern NM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Quieter weather may persist into Thursday as an upper level ridge
crests over the southern Rockies. Moisture will begin moving north
into AZ and western NM during this period but models are no longer
in as good agreement as they were the past two days with storm
chances. There are hints now that storms may creep into western
NM earlier than previously shown on Thursday. It is still likely
that central and eastern NM will be dry with much warmer temps.
There are also some greater model differences beyond Thursday with
how the next H5 low will evolve over the southwest CONUS. Previous
forecasts showed the upper low remaining intact while drifting
east into AZ and NM thru the weekend and early next week. Guidance
is now trending toward a nearly stationary upper low over SoCal
Friday thru the weekend before it ejects thru the central Rockies
as an open wave early next week. Either way, there is abundant
subtropical moisture pooled over the eastern Pacific and much of
Mexico so there is potential for it to be drawn northward with
this pattern. The main uncertainties will be timing and coverage
of the greater QPF. The latest 72-hr NBM 50th percentile QPF
Saturday thru Monday shows widespread amounts of 0.25" to 0.50".
Temps are also more likely to trend below normal in this pattern
with many areas seeing highs in the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Skies have cleared in most areas except parts of northern NM where
a few mid level cigs and patchy fog remain. The area around Gallup
and Angel Fire will see IFR vsbys thru sunrise. Another crop of
SHRA/TS will develop after 2pm over the southern high terrain and
northeast NM. This activity will move quickly east/southeast with
gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain possible thru midnight. A
backdoor cold front will then surge south and west across eastern
NM tonight with north wind gusts of 25 to 35KT likely, especially
near the TX/NM state line. Widespread MVFR low cigs will develop
in the wake of the cold front over east-central and southeast NM.
There is a 10-20% chance for IFR cigs along the east slopes of
the central mt chain after midnight. East winds in the RGV may
approach 30KT briefly at KABQ after midnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
There are no critical fire weather conditions expected for at least
the next seven days. Storm chances today will be relegated to the
southern high terrain and northeast NM. The risk for burn scar flash
flooding will be moderate for the Ruidoso area today. A series of
backdoor cold fronts entering eastern NM will bring cooler temps and
breezy winds at times thru Wednesday. Storm chances may increase in
western NM as early as Thursday while central and eastern NM stay
dry and warmer. Friday thru Monday will feature increasing storm
chances for a larger portion of the area. However, rainfall amounts
and timing of the greater storm chances is much less certain. Temps
will also cool near to below normal with the pattern over the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  34  73  36 /  20  10   0   0
Cuba............................  73  38  71  43 /  10   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  76  35  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  41  74  44 /  10   0  10   5
Grants..........................  76  38  76  42 /  10   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  76  44  78  45 /  20   5  10  10
Magdalena.......................  76  49  72  51 /  40  20  20  10
Datil...........................  75  44  73  46 /  30  10  20  20
Reserve.........................  83  48  85  48 /  20  10  10  10
Glenwood........................  87  54  89  54 /  10   5  10  10
Chama...........................  66  34  68  37 /  30  20  10   0
Los Alamos......................  71  47  68  47 /  10  10  10   5
Pecos...........................  74  42  67  43 /  10  20  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  70  38  68  41 /  30  30  10   5
Red River.......................  59  32  58  32 /  40  40  10   0
Angel Fire......................  65  27  62  26 /  40  30  10   0
Taos............................  72  40  70  38 /  20  20  10   0
Mora............................  70  37  63  38 /  30  40  20   5
Espanola........................  78  45  75  45 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  73  46  69  47 /  10  10  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  76  44  72  45 /   5  10   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  54  75  53 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  55  77  54 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  52  78  53 /  10  10   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  52  76  53 /   5  10   0   5
Belen...........................  84  52  79  50 /  10  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  82  51  78  51 /   5  10   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  83  49  78  50 /  10  10   0   5
Corrales........................  83  51  78  52 /   5  10   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  83  50  79  52 /  10  10   0   5
Placitas........................  78  50  74  49 /   5  10   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  82  52  78  52 /   5  10   0   5
Socorro.........................  85  56  81  54 /  30  20  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  47  70  45 /  10  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  76  49  72  47 /  10  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  76  47  71  43 /  10  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  44  71  41 /  10  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  73  44  65  43 /  10  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  78  47  70  44 /  20  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  78  47  70  45 /  20  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  83  54  74  52 /  50  40  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  75  48  63  48 /  50  60  30  20
Capulin.........................  68  41  63  38 /  60  70   5   0
Raton...........................  70  42  66  39 /  60  60  10   0
Springer........................  75  44  68  40 /  50  60   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  73  43  65  41 /  20  40  10   5
Clayton.........................  74  49  68  46 /  40  70   5   0
Roy.............................  75  47  68  44 /  40  70   5   5
Conchas.........................  81  53  73  49 /  10  60   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  79  52  71  47 /  10  50   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  79  51  71  47 /  10  50   5   5
Clovis..........................  83  54  73  51 /   5  40   5   5
Portales........................  84  53  73  50 /  10  50  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  83  55  74  50 /  10  40   5   5
Roswell.........................  89  60  75  55 /  10  50  10  10
Picacho.........................  83  53  71  49 /  20  50  20  10
Elk.............................  80  50  68  47 /  20  40  30  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion