Three Creek Lake, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

254
FXUS66 KPDT 051716
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1016 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.Updated Aviation Discussion.
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions currently across all sites,
which will stay the course through the period. Ceilings will
continue to clear for those sites that are still experiencing
lingering clouds. Breezy 10-15kt winds expected for KRDM/KBDN this
afternoon, but light winds staying below 8 kts for all remaining
terminals. 75
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025/
DISCUSSION...Scattered light showers to our northeast will
dissipate by the early morning as an upper-level northwesterly wave
moves out of the region. Replacing it will be a high pressure ridge,
but as we transition between the two, cool northerly flow will
prevail over the forecast area heading into Monday. With this, skies
will clear, and many of our elevated valleys will see a chance for
their first hard freeze of the season, including central Oregon, the
John Day Basin, Wallowa Valley, and the Grande Ronde Valley.
Downsloping winds may shelter some of these valleys from
particularly efficient radiational cooling, but otherwise the
synoptic setup is ideal for a cold Sunday night / early Monday
morning. Will opt to upgrade our current Freeze Watches into
Warnings as a result.
Monday and Tuesday look dry with the aforementioned ridge overhead,
before our next chances for precip materialize by Wednesday. Models
depict a broad low pressure system centering itself off the Pacific
coast by the midweek, but hold off on any substantial moisture
advection until around the end of the work week. We`ll see low-end
chances for rain across the Cascades Wednesday into Thursday (15-
25%), before PoPs become more widespread by Friday. Ensembles have
this system undergoing a slow progression heading into next weekend,
so the forecast confidence is moderate-high (50-60%) in seeing cool
and wet conditions Friday onward. Evans/74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  38  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  67  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  37  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65  34  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  62  27  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  62  33  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  63  32  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  72  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PDT Monday for
     ORZ049-050-505-511.
WA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...75

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion