Three Lakes Trail, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS66 KMFR 302105
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
205 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a large swath of rain has moved
onshore and up to the Cascade slopes as of early this afternoon
as a cold front works its way through the region. This front is
forecast to produce widespread light rain, although some periods
of moderate rain are possible along the coast and coastal ranges
and the western slopes of the Cascades. Gusty winds are also
expected today, mainly over high terrain, along the coast, in the
Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades (especially in the Summer
Lake area). Wind Advisories continue in the Shasta Valley and the
East Side through this evening, with details found at PDXNPWMFR.
The front has lost some of its punch in terms of moisture, and as
a result, rainfall amounts are expected to be less than what we
had with the previous front. Post frontal showers are likely
behind the front tonight and continuing into Thursday as the
upper level trough passes overhead. Showers should taper off by
Thursday evening as the trough exits and high pressure attempts
to rebuild just to our west.
This will usher in a return to dry conditions across the area for
the weekend. With swift northwest flow overhead between the
eastern Pacific ridge and the trough to the east, temperatures
will remain at or just below seasonal normals.
Early next week, a large trough of closed low is expected to
develop over California and the Great Basin, with ridging nudging
into Washington and northern Oregon. This pattern is known to
produce warm and dry conditions with east winds, as an enhanced
thermal trough develops along the coast. The forecast has been
updated to depict this pattern, with temperatures warming to 5 to
10 degrees above normal for early October, and little to no
chance for rain until the pattern shifts later in the week. -Bpn
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...A front is [passing through the area
today, producing rain, along with moderate to occasionally strong
winds winds along the coast, in the Shasta Valley and portions of
the East Side. Some low level wind speed shear is possible west of
the Cascades, including at Roseburg and North Bend before the
stronger winds surface there.
Showers will then continue for much of the area tonight. Along the
coast, and at any locations where clouds clear tonight, could see
IFR/LIFR develop in fog and/or low stratus. Otherwise, most
locations will remain VFR with occasional MVFR in showers through
Wednesday morning. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, September 30, 2025...South
gales and very steep seas are expected through this afternoon as a
cold front passes over the area. One the front moves onshore this
evening, winds will diminish some, but will remain breezy through
tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, building west swell and residual
wind driven seas will result in continuing steep to very steep seas.
Steep seas will gradually diminish Thursday through Friday morning.
An upper trough will move from north to south in central Oregon and
in it`s wake will be a developing thermal trough resulting in
increasing north winds during the day Friday and could persist
through the weekend and into early next week. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-370.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion