Three Rivers, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS64 KEPZ 021648
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1048 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- There will be a low chance of showers for areas west of the
   Continental Divide on Friday.
- Mountains will see low shower and thunderstorm chances for the
   middle part of next week.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air
   mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
UL ridge continues to build across the Desert SW while a trough
sharpens along the West Coast. The ridge will keep us dry and warm
today. The trough will begin pushing the ridge east for Friday
allowing for a modest subtropical moisture tap, mainly west of the
Continental Divide. A s/w trough will also move through the flow
with its axis crossing NM late Friday into Saturday. This trough
axis will increase winds for Friday and Saturday bringing parts of
the area into the low-end breezy category. The GFS and HRRR also
show areas of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm moving with the
trough axis. The NBM discounts this scenario, but given the
pattern, I did introduce some mentionable POPs (15%) to areas
along and west of the Continental Divide for Friday afternoon into
the overnight hours.
Long wave trough will remain anchored over the West Coast into
Sunday with our CWA beneath deep SW`ly flow before the ridge
across TX begins building back west into Chihuahua and far
southern NM and west TX. This pattern keeps us dry and warm though
the NBM does have some low POPs in the mountains. Surface flow
gradually turns easterly on Wednesday, which will help increase
our moisture. The GFS brings a cold front into the CWA on Thursday
and with it rain chances, but NBM is not fond of this scenario,
favoring the Euro, which is drier and warmer, keeping a weaker
front displaced to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with SKC-FEW090.
Winds will be light and variable though favoring a south to
southeasterly direction (150-180) during the afternoon hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the
forecast period but with no significant fire weather concerns.
Afternoon RH values will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s
for Friday while winds top out around 10 MPH. Areas west of the
Rio Grande will have a low chance (15%) for a shower or
thunderstorm. Winds will increase some for Saturday, topping out
around 15 MPH for mainly the mountains and northern lowlands. Min
RH values will be similar to Friday. Venting will range good to
very good on Friday, increasing to very good to excellent on
Saturday.
Winds come down for Sunday but min RH values will remain in the
upper teens to lower 20s. Moisture will gradually increase into
next week continuing to keep fire weather concerns minimal to nil.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  64  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  80  55  79 /   0  20  20   0
Deming                   60  89  59  89 /   0  20  20   0
Lordsburg                63  86  61  84 /   0  20  20   0
West El Paso Metro       67  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             63  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             62  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            60  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    60  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  89  60  90 /   0  20  20   0
Orogrande                59  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  75  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  49  78  50  77 /   0  20  20   0
Hillsboro                56  84  56  84 /   0  20  20   0
Spaceport                57  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  81  52  78 /   0  20  20   0
Hurley                   56  83  55  82 /   0  20  20   0
Cliff                    59  87  58  84 /   0  20  20   0
Mule Creek               56  83  55  80 /   0  20  20   0
Faywood                  57  81  58  81 /   0  20  20   0
Animas                   61  88  60  86 /   0  20  20   0
Hachita                  59  87  60  85 /   0  20  20   0
Antelope Wells           60  87  60  86 /   0  20  20   0
Cloverdale               61  83  58  80 /   0  20  20   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion