Three Sticks Monument, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

734
FXUS64 KTSA 151647
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Above average temperatures continue through midweek with low to
   medium (10-40%) shower/storm chances each afternoon.
-  Frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end of the
   week bringing increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures
- At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend as
   various disturbances move nearby the local region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Another hot and humid afternoon is in store across the area as
temperatures warm into the 90s areawide and heat index values
approach 100 degrees in some locations. Scattered showers and storms
will once again be possible this afternoon, mainly across northwest
Arkansas where terrain enhancements will help spark off some storms
in the heat of the day. Forecast thermo profiles show a well mixed
boundary layer which could lead to some gusty winds within any storm
that can develop. Severe weather remains unlikely owing to the lack
of deep layer shear over the region, but some gusts of 40-50 mph
can`t be ruled out with the stronger cells. Storms will likely
linger toward sunset before gradually declining after sunset with
the loss of heating. Another unseasonably warm night is forecast,
with lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Broad ridging will remain in place over much of the CONUS through
Tuesday. With little change in the overall pattern, much of the same
is expected on Tuesday as that of previous days. A subtle impulse
moving near the region could potentially spark off more numerous
showers/storms tomorrow afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. Thus, have adjusted PoPs westward somewhat
from the NBM to cover mention throughout the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
Severe weather is still unlikely, but again gusty winds and brief
heavy downpours will be the main impact with any storms. Upper
troughing then begins to impinge on the central CONUS by Wednesday,
leading to increasing precip chances, mainly across eastern Oklahoma
on Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures.
Troughing becomes more entrenched over the Central Plains on
Thursday with much of the guidance lingering the upper throughout
the Plains through the weekend. This will likely push a frontal
boundary into the area late Wednesday into Thursday, with more
widespread shower and storm chances expected through the end of the
workweek. Severe chances remain low, but a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible in this timeframe. Damaging winds will
be the main concern with any stronger storm that can develop. Added
cloud cover and precip in the area will also lead to more seasonable
temperatures, mainly in the 80s, through the rest of the period as
well. At least low rain chances will continue through the weekend as
various disturbances move around the parent upper low lingering over
the Central Plains.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
While VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, there remains a small chance of early morning fog
development in a few locations. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with higher chances
confined to northwest AR. Any direct thunderstorm impact could
result in brief MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  93  69  90 /  10  20   0  20
FSM   70  94  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
MLC   67  93  67  92 /   0  20   0  20
BVO   65  91  65  89 /  10  20  10  30
FYV   65  89  63  90 /  20  30  10  20
BYV   65  89  65  90 /  20  30  10  20
MKO   68  92  68  91 /   0  20   0  20
MIO   66  91  66  89 /  20  20  10  20
F10   67  92  66  91 /   0  20   0  20
HHW   67  91  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion