Thumb Butte Park, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

290
FXUS65 KFGZ 222242
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
342 PM MST Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening, before drying out for Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled
weather returns for the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A sub-tropical moisture plume is advecting into
Arizona this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms continuing
mainly along and south of a Prescott to Window Rock line. As the
upper jet pushes to the east, we should see the activity diminish
with dry conditions arriving tonight.
The overall pattern looks to be that of a blocking pattern,
reminiscent of an Omega block, though it won`t be particularly long
lived. The ridge over our area gets squeezed between a low off the
southern California coast and a low digging down through the central
Plains. This should keep us dry for Tuesday through Thursday before
the SOCAL low starts to make its move eastward. A vort max in the
mid-levels will push down from the north on Tuesday, which may help
to enhance the winds, especially across northern zones.
The block breaks down and the coastal low starts to move inland
towards the end of the week. Models continue to struggle with how
this low will impact our region and solutions range from potential
severe weather to heavy rain to gusty winds. There is considerable
uncertainty this far out, so it will be best to keep an eye on the
forecast in the coming days as things are liable to change as the
picture becomes clearer.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/00Z through Wednesday 24/00Z...VFR
conditions. Winds VRB 5-10 kts through 18Z, then becoming N/NE.
Locally gusty NE winds in excess of 20 kts downwind of the terrain
overnight.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/00Z through Friday 26/00Z...VFR conditions.
Daytime winds N/NE 5-10 kts on Friday, becoming S/SW on Thursday.
Locally gusty NE winds in excess of 20 kts downwind of the terrain
overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for high terrain areas Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Daytime winds N-NE 5-15 mph on Tuesday, NE-E 5-
15 mph Wednesday. Min RH values 15-35% Tuesday, 15-25% Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...A cutoff Low off the southern California
Coast will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area
over the time period.  Winds S-SW 10-15 mph Thursday through
Saturday. Min RH values 20-35% Thursday and Friday, 35-50% Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion