Tice, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS62 KTBW 011318
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
918 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Drier air on the west side of Hurricane Imelda and high pressure
building in from the north remains over west central and southwest
Florida producing pleasant weather with lower rain chances today.
The 12Z morning sounding is showing this dry air with a PWAT of only
1.47 inches. The morning sounding is also showing a strong
subsidence inversion around 11k feet, which will likely hinder the
development of any convection today. Warm temperatures expected
today topping out in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. No changes needed
to current forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions and light winds around 5-10 knots will prevail at all
terminals through the period. Rain and storm chances remain low
today, so will not mention any weather concerns at any of the
terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 917 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hurricane Imelda remains well to the east of Florida and is moving
eastward away from Florida toward Bermuda. Strong surface high
pressure will build into the eastern gulf from the north, creating a
tight pressure gradient across the eastern gulf waters. This will
result in east and northeast winds increasing to Small Craft
Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through the
upcoming weekend, with the highest winds generally north of Tampa
Bay. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms will
develop each day, creating locally gusty winds and rough seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  74  89  73 /  20  30  50  10
FMY  91  74  88  73 /  30  30  70  30
GIF  90  73  87  72 /  20  20  50  10
SRQ  89  73  89  72 /  30  30  60  20
BKV  90  69  88  68 /  20  20  40   0
SPG  88  75  87  74 /  30  30  50  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Pearce

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion