Tillar, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS64 KLZK 151727
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
-Chances for afternoon showers/storms each day
-While some folks will see beneficial rainfall...widespread heavy
rainfall is not expected
-Cooler temps will be seen by later this week...mainly due to
 rainfall potential and cloud cover. Muggy conditions will persist
 however.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Mostly quiet conditions are ongoing across the area early this Mon
morning...though some spotty convection was noted to the NE of the
state. This activity was moving generally SW over time...so have kept
some POPs going early this Mon morning across NERN sections.
Otherwise...mild/warm conditions will be seen...with lows only
dropping down into the mid 60s to low 70s.
As the activity to the NE drops SW this morning...will probably see
some additional isolated to widely scattered convection re-fire this
Mon afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries as they drop SW
over time...and with weak upper energy also dropping SW. As a
result...have bumped POPs into the 30-40 percent range where the
best potential for afternoon convection will be. This will be mainly
across the NRN/NWRN half of the area. Temps may be a deg or two
cooler for this Mon afternoon compared to previous days due to
better POPs and cloud cover...but still well above normal and muggy
for this time of yr.
There will continue to be some potential each day into at least Thu
for some afternoon convection for some portion of the state as there
will remain weakness in the upper flow. While no major systems will
be passing over the region to trigger organized
convection...isolated/scattered convection will be possible each
afternoon. This will bring some relief from the dry/hot weather
recently...but moisture levels looks to remain muggy. The threat for
seeing strong to SVR Wx should remain low each afternoon...but an
isolated strong storm may be seen.
By later this week into the weekend...an upper low over the Great
Plains will slowly drift east just north of  AR...with some upper
waves passing by on the SRN periphery of this low over AR. This
setup may bring some better chances for convection Fri into
Sat...along with cooler temps. These cooler temps and better rain
chances will persist into Sun as flow aloft will be a bit more
pronounced from the west/NW at the end of the forecast.
While temps will start off in the 80s and 90s...with dewpts in the
60s and 70s...temps will drop into the 70s and 80s by this coming
weekend for highs. Dewpts will likely remain in the 60s and 70s
however. Lows will be warmest early in the forecast as well...in the
60s and 70s...dropping to mainly the 60s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms develop earlier today primarily
around KBPK due to a weak upper level energy/disturbance moving
southwest into northeast Arkansas. Latest Hi-res CAMs show
additional development mainly over northern Arkansas and impacting
northern terminals during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Main aviation impacts will be a brief period or two of MVFR/IFR
conditions, gusty thunderstorm gusts and locally heavy rain mainly
over northern terminals. A few showers and thunderstorms are also
possible mainly over southeast Arkansas. At this time, confidence
is too low to place -SHRA or -TSRA in the TAFs at PBF and LLQ but
will continue to monitor and amended as needed. Winds will be
light and variable but the predominately out of the N/NE and
remain light through the period. Otherwise, VFR condtions will
persist through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  93  66  94 /  20  10   0  10
Camden AR         67  93  67  93 /  20  20  10  20
Harrison AR       65  90  65  89 /  20  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    68  93  68  93 /  20  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  70  92  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
Monticello AR     69  95  70  94 /  10  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      67  93  68  92 /  20  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  66  93  65  94 /  20  10   0  10
Newport AR        69  93  68  94 /  10  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     69  93  68  93 /  20  10   0  10
Russellville AR   68  94  69  94 /  20  20  10  20
Searcy AR         68  93  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      70  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion