Timber, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

032
FXUS63 KSGF 250516
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1216 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today and tonight.
  Isolated flooding risk this afternoon/evening.
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A sharp mid-level trough just northwest of the CWA will drive a
mix of patchy drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms at times into
early Thursday before it moves east of the area. Increasing
mid-level lapse rates as the trough moves into the area this
afternoon and evening will allow for 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and PWATs of 1.4-1.6", which will pose a very localized heavy
rain threat but no severe storms. 12Z HREF QPF PMM values are
only up to around an inch, but LPMM values are up to 3-4",
indicating any flooding concerns would favor minimal coverage
with any stationary or training cells. Greatest threat will be
over central MO.
Otherwise, expect precip to end from west to east tonight into
Thursday morning. Some clearing of clouds is expected Thursday
morning, but a daytime CU field should develop shortly after.
Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The area will come under the influence of a strong upper ridge
later this week into or through all of next week. This will lead
to temperatures rising to above normal values with highs in the
low to mid 80s starting Saturday, along with dry weather. This
coincides with the CPC 6-10 day outlook which favors above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8-14 day
outlook continues to favor above normal temperatures, but
becomes more neutral for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the 06z TAFS, as the upper trough and frontal system
continue to push east across the area, stratus and fog will be
the main avitation hazards throughout the remainder of the night
into mid morning Thursday. Stratus was affecting most of the
area but the western 1/3 of the CWA. Behind the stratus, fog
quickly developed. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected at all 3 TAF
sites through the overnight into mid morning. With drier air
moving in behind the trough, the sites should clear out by mid
to late morning with VFR conditions through the early evening
hours. Some MVFR fog may begin to redevelop by late in the
evening on Thursday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion