Trident, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

034
FXUS65 KTFX 202001
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
201 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through the rest of today.
- Sunday and Monday will be breezy with a chance of precipitation
   across much of the region.
- Expect cooler temperatures on Monday before warming up to above
   normal by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
Upper level ridging over the area today will result in an
unseasonably warm day across North Central and Southwestern
Montana, with highs around 10 degrees above average today. This
warmth will extend into Sunday as well, but an approaching upper
level trough will result in a breezy day across the area,
particularly across the plains and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
While winds will be noticeable (and maybe the strongest we have
had in the past few months), dont expect this to be a disruptive
event, but rather just a reminder that we are heading back into
our windy season. The axis of this trough will move overhead
Monday, which will result in the coldest day of the week with
temperatures just slightly (5 degrees or so) below average.
However, warmth quickly returns to the area by midweek as upper
level ridging quickly returns to the Treasure State. Ludwig
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Rain Sunday/Monday:
The latest run of the HREF now extends through early Monday
morning and the picture it paints so far is that there is a
greater than 80% chance for at least 0.10" across much of
southwest Montana up into portions of central Montana. But getting
into much higher amounts, the probabilities start to drop off
pretty dramatically. The highest chance for amounts greater than
0.25" will be confined more to Madison, Gallatin, Broadwater, and
Meagher counties. And the chance for amounts greater than 0.50"
are reserved for the Madison and Gallatin mountain ranges.
Isolated higher amounts are still possible, however, pin-pointing
exactly where those higher amounts will occur has been difficult.
Additionally, with snow levels dropping as low as 8500 feet, there
is the potential for a dusting of snow along the highest
elevations of the Madison and Gallatin ranges although no
significant accumulation is expected with this event.
Wind Sunday/Monday:
The probabilities for the highest wind gusts continue to trend
downward. The HREF leans more toward more isolated wind gusts
above 50 mph are expected in the wind prone areas of the Rocky
Mountain Front. When looking at the probability from the HREF of
gusts over 40 mph, there are two areas to watch: the Rocky
Mountain Front and eastern Fergus county. Both regions have a
60-80% chance of seeing wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel may
occasionally be difficult along north-south oriented roads in
these two areas, especially for high-profile vehicles and those
towing trailers.
Impact-wise the greatest concern will be for those recreating
outdoors, particularly as the rain starts to spread across the
region in combination with the wind. With temperatures in the 30s
across the higher elevations, conditions in the backcountry will
be difficult for anyone not prepared.  -thor
Extended Outlook:
Later in the week uncertainty is higher than normal with the WPC
cluster analysis showing a wide range of possibilities, from a
moderately strong upper level ridge to a potent upper level trough
pushing into the area. NBM shows things trending to near average
for the end of the week, but keep in mind that this solution is
unlikely to verify and cant tell the entire story when the
extended appears to be an either/or scenario between warm and dry
vs cooler, wetter, and potentially windier. Ludwig
&&
.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. There will be
breezy west winds across the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon
affecting mainly the KCTB terminal. -Wilson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  83  48  68 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  47  75  44  68 /   0  10  30  10
HLN  51  80  46  68 /   0  30  70  20
BZN  46  79  44  63 /   0  20  90  30
WYS  35  65  36  58 /   0  50  90  50
DLN  45  76  41  63 /   0  50  80  10
HVR  50  83  49  69 /   0   0  50  20
LWT  51  81  47  61 /   0  10  90  40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion