Trigg Furnace Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

593
FXUS63 KPAH 120610
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
110 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and
  seasonally mild.
- Rain/thunderstorm chances may return by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
The Omega-block style pattern is benefitting us in its repeat
production of seasonally dry and mild weather daily that does
not look to abate until maybe, possibly, sometime next weekend.
The strongest H5 heights still occur early in the week, when 588
DM builds overtop our CWA, ridged from the 592 DM centered
anticyclone over east TX. The surface circulation is still
around the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley anticyclone, so we`ll keep
the wonderful fetch of northeast to easterlies reinforcing 50s
dew points for us as highs top out in the upper 70s to lower
80s; that`s about 5-10F above seasonal norms. Lows stay closer
to seasonal tonight-tmrw night, then follow a similar trend
running 5-10F above seasonal norms. On any such of these cool
mornings, patchy fog is possible.
The models continue to hint that rain chances might return
sometime next weekend, toward the end of this forecast cycle or
just beyond. The GFS is a little more progressive but less
amplified, while the Euro is slower and more robust in its
amplification; both paint pcpn across the CWA over or thru the
back half of the weekend. The NBM is starting to respond with
what looks to be a slight favor toward the GFS`s more
progressive pattern modeling. Of note, the 6-10/8-14 day
outlooks for Above/Above, suggesting a little more active
pattern may soon be emerging.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Patchy fog cannot be ruled out with potential vsby restrictions
prior to daybreak, otherwise, high pressure remains the
prevalant synoptic pattern influence producing Visual Flight
Rules flight conditions. When/where bases exist, they`ll run
FEW-SCT at best with diurnal potential in the 5-7K FT AGL range
limited with pressure deficits bottoming around 50 mb; there`s a
shave more support for FEW-SCT high cirrus during the planning
phase of the forecast, when deficits ping as low as 30 mb within
scant moisture ribboning near H5 on the gridded time/height
cross sections.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion